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Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence

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  • Alexander M. Danzer
  • Lennard Zyska

Abstract

This study identifies the causal effect of pension generosity on women’s fertility behavior. It capitalizes on Brazil’s expansion of the pension system to rural workers, whose pension wealth subsequently more than tripled. Event study, difference-in-differences and instrumental variable methods show that the pension reform reduces the propensity of childbearing of women in fertile age by 10% in the short-run. Completed fertility declines by 1.3 children within 20 years after the reform, reducing the contribution base of the Pay-As-You-Go pension system in the long-run. The fertility response is strongest at higher birth parities, among older women and among mothers with sons.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander M. Danzer & Lennard Zyska, 2020. "Pensions and Fertility: Micro-Economic Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 8173, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8173
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2023. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 16500, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pension wealth; fertility; old-age security hypothesis; quasi-experiment; PAYG; Brazil;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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