IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7246.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Negligible Senescence: An Economic Life Cycle Model for the Future

Author

Listed:
  • Davide Dragone
  • Holger Strulik

Abstract

We propose a model of aging and health deficit accumulation model with an infinite time horizon and a steady state of constant health. The time of death is uncertain and endogenous to lifestyle and health behavior. This setup can be conceptualized as a strive for immortality that is never reached. We discuss adjustment dynamics and show that the new setup is particularly useful to understand aging of the oldest old, i.e. of individuals for which morbidity and mortality have reached a plateau. We then show how the existence of a steady state can be used to perform comparative dynamics exercises analytically. As an illustration we investigate the effects of more expensive health investment and of advances in medical technology on optimal short run and long run health behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Dragone & Holger Strulik, 2018. "Negligible Senescence: An Economic Life Cycle Model for the Future," CESifo Working Paper Series 7246, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7246.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Erosa, Andres & Gervais, Martin, 2002. "Optimal Taxation in Life-Cycle Economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 338-369, August.
    2. Roger E. A. Farmer, 2018. "Pricing Assets in a Perpetual Youth Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 106-124, October.
    3. Eric French & Elaine Kelly & Mariacristina Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones & Jeremy McCauley, 2016. "Medical Spending of the US Elderly," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 37, pages 717-747, September.
    4. D. Dragone & P. Vanin, 2015. "Price Effect in the Short and in the Long Run," Working Papers wp1040, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Antoine Bommier, 2006. "Uncertain Lifetime And Intertemporal Choice: Risk Aversion As A Rationale For Time Discounting," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1223-1246, November.
    6. Òscar Jordà & Katharina Knoll & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2019. "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(3), pages 1225-1298.
    7. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 2007. "The Value of Life and the Rise in Health Spending," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 39-72.
    8. Martin Browning & Mette Ejrnæs, 2009. "Consumption and Children," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 93-111, February.
    9. Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan & Prskawetz, Alexia & Feichtinger, Gustav, 2015. "Optimal choice of health and retirement in a life-cycle model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PA), pages 186-212.
    10. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2013. "Long-run trends of human aging and longevity," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1303-1323, October.
    11. James W. Vaupel, 2010. "Biodemography of human ageing," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7288), pages 536-542, March.
    12. Heckman, James J, 1976. "A Life-Cycle Model of Earnings, Learning, and Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 11-44, August.
    13. Raj Chetty, 2006. "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1821-1834, December.
    14. repec:cup:jdemec:v:81:y:2015:i:03:p:301-316_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Holger STRULIK, 2015. "A Closed-form Solution for the Health Capital Model," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 301-316, September.
    16. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    17. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Hungry children age faster," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 211-220.
    18. Ehrlich, Isaac & Chuma, Hiroyuki, 1990. "A Model of the Demand for Longevity and the Value of Life Extension," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 761-782, August.
    19. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2014. "Optimal Aging And Death: Understanding The Preston Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 672-701, June.
    20. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Peter Levell & James P. Smith, 2015. "Life-Cycle Consumption Patterns at Older Ages in the US and the UK Can Medical Expenditures Explain the Difference?," Working Papers WR-1100, RAND Corporation.
    21. Kenneth Manton & Igor Akushevich & Alexander Kulminski, 2008. "Human Mortality at Extreme Ages: Data from the NLTCS and Linked Medicare Records," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 137-159.
    22. Grossman, Michael, 1972. "On the Concept of Health Capital and the Demand for Health," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(2), pages 223-255, March-Apr.
    23. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    24. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Holger Strulik, 2018. "How We Fall Apart: Similarities of Human Aging in 10 European Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(1), pages 341-359, February.
    25. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "The gender gap in mortality: How much is explained by behavior?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 79-90.
    26. Strulik, Holger, 2015. "Frailty, mortality, and the demand for medical care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 5-12.
    27. Michael R. Caputo, 1990. "Comparative Dynamics via Envelope Methods in Variational Calculus," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(4), pages 689-697.
    28. Becker, Gary S & Murphy, Kevin M, 1988. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 675-700, August.
    29. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Life Cycle Consumption and Labor Supply: An Explanation of the Relationship Between Income and Consumption Over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 188-194, March.
    30. Forster, Martin, 2001. "The meaning of death: some simulations of a model of healthy and unhealthy consumption," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 613-638, July.
    31. Roozbei Hosseini & Karen Kopecky & Kai Zhao, 2022. "The Evolution of Health over the Life Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 237-263, July.
    32. Eisenring, Christoph, 1999. "Comparative dynamics in a health investment model," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 653-658, October.
    33. Oniki, Hajime, 1973. "Comparative dynamics (sensitivity analysis) in optimal control theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 265-283, June.
    34. Shiro Horiuchi & John Wilmoth, 1998. "Deceleration in the age pattern of mortality at olderages," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 35(4), pages 391-412, November.
    35. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Strulik, Holger, 2019. "Long-run improvements in human health: Steady but unequal," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Carl‐Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Fetal origins—A life cycle model of health and aging from conception to death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1276-1290, June.
    2. Pablo Garcia-Sanchez & Olivier Pierrard, 2023. "Uncertain lifetime, health investment and welfare," BCL working papers 178, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    3. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. D. Dragone & H. Strulik, 2017. "Human Health and Aging over an Infinite Time Horizon," Working Papers wp1104, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    2. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "Medical progress and life cycle choices," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2017. "The gender gap in mortality: How much is explained by behavior?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 79-90.
    4. Strulik, Holger, 2022. "A health economic theory of occupational choice, aging, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Carl‐Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2021. "Fetal origins—A life cycle model of health and aging from conception to death," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 1276-1290, June.
    6. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "The return to education in terms of wealth and health," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Holger Strulik & Volker Grossmann, 2022. "Life Cycle Economics with Infectious and Chronic Diseases," CESifo Working Paper Series 10141, CESifo.
    8. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Holger Strulik, 2017. "The Genesis of the Golden Age: Accounting for the Rise in Health and Leisure," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 132-151, March.
    9. Strulik, Holger, 2019. "An economic theory of depression and its impact on health behavior and longevity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 269-287.
    10. Trimborn, Timo & Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger, 2016. "Disentangling the Gender Gap in Longevity," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145570, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Johannes Schuenemann & Holger Strulik & Timo Trimborn, 2020. "The Marriage Gap: Optimal Aging and Death in Partnerships," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 158-176, April.
    12. Davide Dragone & Paolo Vanin, 2022. "Substitution Effects in Intertemporal Problems," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 791-809, August.
    13. Strulik, Holger, 2018. "Smoking kills: An economic theory of addiction, health deficit accumulation, and longevity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Kelly, Mark & Kuhn, Michael, 2022. "Congestion in a public health service: A macro approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2023. "Anticipation of deteriorating health and information avoidance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Ana Lucia Abeliansky & Holger Strulik, 2023. "Health and aging before and after retirement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2825-2855, October.
    17. Abeliansky, Ana Lucia & Erel, Devin & Strulik, Holger, 2019. "Aging in the USA: Similarities and disparities across time and space," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 384, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Schünemann, Johannes & Strulik, Holger & Trimborn, Timo, 2022. "Optimal demand for medical and long-term care," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    19. Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Accounting for Fetal Origins: Health Capital vs. Health Deficits," Discussion Papers 17-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    20. Strulik, Holger, 2021. "Intertemporal choice with health-dependent discounting," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 19-25.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    comparative dynamics; endogenous mortality; life-expectancy; medical progress;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J17 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Value of Life; Foregone Income

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.