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Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlinde Fellner
  • Werner Güth
  • Boris Maciejovsky

Abstract

Overall, 72 subjects invest their endowment in four risky assets. Each com-bination of assets yields the same expected return and variance of returns. Illusion of expertise prevails when one prefers nevertheless the self-selected portfolio. After being randomly assigned to groups of four subjects are asked to elect their "expert" based on responses to a prior decision task. Using the random price mecha-nism reveals that 64% of the subjects prefer their own portfolio over the average group portfolio or the expert’s port-folio. Illusion of expertise is shown to be stable individually, over alternatives, and for both eliciting methods, willingness to pay and to accept.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlinde Fellner & Werner Güth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2001. "Illusion of Expertise in Portfolio Decisions - An Experimental Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 621, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Caliendo, Frank & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2008. "Overconfidence and consumption over the life cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1347-1369, December.
    3. da Silva, Eduardo Borges & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Constantino, Michel & Amancio, Diego Raphael & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Overconfidence and the 2D:4D ratio," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Maren Baars & Michael Goedde‐Menke, 2022. "Ignorance illusion in decisions under risk: The impact of perceived expertise on probability weighting," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(1), pages 35-62, March.
    5. Ibrahim Filiz & Thomas Nahmer & Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding, status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 167-205, May.
    6. White, Tiffany Barnett & Novak, Thomas P. & Hoffman, Donna L., 2014. "No Strings Attached: When Giving It Away Versus Making Them Pay Reduces Consumer Information Disclosure," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 184-195.
    7. Dennis Dittrich & Werner Guth & Boris Maciejovsky, 2005. "Overconfidence in investment decisions: An experimental approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 471-491.
    8. Adam S. Goodie & Diana L. Young, 2007. "The skill element in decision making under uncertainty: Control or competence?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 2, pages 189-203, June.
    9. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2002. "How Much Is Investor Autonomy Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1593-1616, August.
    10. repec:cup:judgdm:v:2:y:2007:i::p:189-203 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Taylor, Matthew P. & Wozniak, David, 2018. "Gender differences in asset information acquisition," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 19-29.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment decisions; portfolio selection; overconfidence; unrealistic optimism; illusion of control; endowment effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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