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Endogenous Growth in an Open Economy and the Real Exchange Rate

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Author Info
Daniela Federici ()
Giancarlo Gandolfo ()

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Abstract

This paper is a step in the direction of a larger research project aimed at determining the long run equilibrium value of the euro/dollar real exchange rate. Given this value, one could then give a precise meaning to the notion of undervaluation or overvaluation of the euro, and calculate its misalignment. The problem however arises of how to assess the reliability of such misalignment calculations. In our opinion, we must have a benchmark (namely a period in which we exactly know from outside sources the misalignment itself), against which we can test the validity of the model underlying our calculations. This of course is not (yet) possible for the euro, so that all the calculations of the misalignment of the euro that have been made can only be compared with one another, without knowing which is the good one. Hence, before building a model to be applied to the euro/dollar, we tested our ideas incorporating them in a basic model to be applied to the lira/dollar in a period in which we do exactly know the actual misalignment of the lira from outside sources.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 526.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_526

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Related research
Keywords: NATREX; equilibrium exchange rates; international capital flows; misalignment;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frank Hahn & Robert Solow, 1997. "A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026258154x.
  3. Wickens, Michael, 1995. "Real Business Cycle Analysis: A Needed Revolution in Macroeconometrics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1637-48, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Quah, Danny, 1990. "Permanent and Transitory Movements in Labor Income: An Explanation for "Excess Smoothness" in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 449-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Infante, Ettore F & Stein, Jerome L, 1973. "Optimal Growth with Robust Feedback Control," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 47-60, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Gandolfo, Giancarlo & Padoan, Pietro Carlo, 1990. "The Italian continuous time model : Theory and empirical results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 91-132, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Wymer, C R, 1972. "Econometric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equation Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 565-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stein, Jerome L., 1990. "The real exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 1045-1078, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 1997. "Spatial Perspectives on New Theories of Economic Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-056/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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