This paper is a step in the direction of a larger research project aimed at determining the long run equilibrium value of the euro/dollar real exchange rate. Given this value, one could then give a precise meaning to the notion of undervaluation or overvaluation of the euro, and calculate its misalignment. The problem however arises of how to assess the reliability of such misalignment calculations. In our opinion, we must have a benchmark (namely a period in which we exactly know from outside sources the misalignment itself), against which we can test the validity of the model underlying our calculations. This of course is not (yet) possible for the euro, so that all the calculations of the misalignment of the euro that have been made can only be compared with one another, without knowing which is the good one. Hence, before building a model to be applied to the euro/dollar, we tested our ideas incorporating them in a basic model to be applied to the lira/dollar in a period in which we do exactly know the actual misalignment of the lira from outside sources.
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number
CESifo Working Paper No. 526.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
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