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Anticipated Consumption and its Impact on Capital Accumulation and Growth: 'Forward-Looking' vs. 'Backward-Looking' Consumption Reference

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  • Goncalo Monteiro
  • Stephen Turnovsky

Abstract

It has long been argued that the anticipations of some future event will impact current consumption and well-being in advance of the occurrence of the event itself. This paper introduces this idea of anticipated pleasure into the Ramsey growth model, by assuming that in addition to his own current consumption, an agent’s current utility depends upon a reference consumption level that is based on expected future consumption. Two alternative specifications of the anticipated future consumption levels are considered: an external index and an internal index. We analyze the macrodynamic equilibrium, comparing it to both the standard Ramsey model, and the more familiar parallel model of habit formation. We establish a number of theoretical propositions characterizing the impact of the anticipated consumption reference on the transitional dynamics and long-run equilibrium, supplementing these with extensive numerical simulations.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2013/wp-cesifo-2013-12/cesifo1_wp4536.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4536.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4536

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Keywords: anticipated consumption; capital accumulation;

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References

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  1. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2004. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0407001, EconWPA.
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  10. Liu, Wen-Fang & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2005. "Consumption externalities, production externalities, and long-run macroeconomic efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 1097-1129, June.
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  23. Kandel, Shmuel & Kuznitz, Arik, 2004. "A Portfolio Choice Model with Utility from Anticipation of Future Consumption and Stock Markets' Mean Reversion," CEPR Discussion Papers 4701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Wendner, Ronald, 2011. "Will the consumption externalities' effects in the Ramsey model please stand up?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 210-212, June.
  25. Mansoorian, Arman, 1998. "Habits and durability in consumption, and the dynamics of the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 69-82, February.
  26. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2000. "Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 367-390, June.
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  28. João Ricardo Faria & Peter Mcadam, 2013. "Anticipation of Future Consumption: A Monetary Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 423-447, 03.
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