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Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?

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  • Xi Chen
  • Michael Funke

Abstract

The renewed momentum in the German housing market has led to concerns that Germany is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to detect the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Germany over the sample period 1987Q3 – 2012Q4. Overall, we find that actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals. Thus, there is no evidence of speculative house price bubbles in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4287
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ansgar Belke & Jonas Keil, 2018. "Fundamental Determinants of Real Estate Prices: A Panel Study of German Regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(1), pages 25-45, February.
    3. Kajuth, Florian, 2021. "Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany1," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. ZEREN, Feyyaz & ERGÜZEL, Oylum Şehvez, 2015. "Testing For Bubbles In The Housing Market: Further Evidence From Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 19(1), pages 40-52.
    6. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Michelsen, Claus & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2018. "Speculative price bubbles in urban housing markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 1957-1983.
    7. Kajuth, Florian, 2020. "The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs," Discussion Papers 20/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2015. "Is There a Bubble in the German Housing Market?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 53, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Jan R. Kim & Gieyoung Lim, 2018. "A look into German housing markets: A bubble call?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 289-301, December.
    10. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "Speculative Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," ERSA conference papers ersa15p67, European Regional Science Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Germany; house price bubbles; right-tailed unit root tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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