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Reform, Uncertainty and Spillovers - A Gravity Model Approach

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  • Jan Fidrmuc
  • Elira Karaja
  • Ariane Tichit

Abstract

Reforms often occur in waves, seemingly cascading from country to country. We argue that such reform waves may be driven by informational spillovers: uncertainty about the outcome of reform is reduced by learning from the experience of similar countries. We motivate this hypothesis with a simple theoretical model and then test it empirically. Our results confirm the presence of informational spillovers with respect to political liberalization but offer little support for informational spillovers with respect to economic reforms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3745.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3745

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Related research

Keywords: reform; transition; institutions; uncertainty; spillovers; contagion;

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  1. Campos, Nauro F & Horváth, Roman, 2006. "Reform Redux: Measurement, Determinants and Reversals," CEPR Discussion Papers 5673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  3. Martin Gassebner & Noel Gaston & Michael Lamla, 2007. "The Inverse Domino Effect: Are Economic Reforms Contagious?," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 31-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Macedo, Jorge Braga de & Martins, Joaquim Oliveira, 2006. "Growth, Reform indicators and Policy complementarities," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp484, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
  5. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  6. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina, 2009. "Entrepreneurship and Reforms in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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