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Structural Change, Urban Congestion, and the End of Growth

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  • Volker Grossmann

Abstract

This paper develops a two-sector R&D-based growth model with congestion effects from increasing urban population density. We show that endogenous technological progress causes structural change if there are positive productivity spillovers from the modern to the traditional sector and Engel’s law holds. In turn, urban congestion effects cause a productivity slowdown in the modern sector. Eventually, economic growth may cease in the long-run. We also show that land dilution from a higher workforce may give rise to negative scale effects on GDP per capita. Finally, we investigate how the optimal land allocation depends on the strength of urban congestion effects.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2011/wp-cesifo-2011-10/cesifo1_wp3626.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3626.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3626

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Keywords: congestion; endogenous growth; Engel’s law; structural change; urbanization;

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  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1991. "Agricultural Productivity, Comparative Advantage and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sergio Rebelo & Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 01/85, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 630, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521898010, October.
  5. L. Rachel Ngai & Christopher Pissarides, 2004. "Structural change in a multi-sector model of growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3550, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Daron Acemoglu & Veronica Guerrieri, 2008. "Capital Deepening and Nonbalanced Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 467-498, 06.
  7. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Kreiner, Claus Thustrup, 2001. " Is Declining Productivity Inevitable?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 187-203, September.
  8. Holger Strulik, 2001. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20109, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  9. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1994. "Public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1173-1187, November.
  10. Timo Boppart, 2010. "Engel's Law and Growth with Directed Technical Change," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_017, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  11. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
  12. Andreas Irmen & Johanna Kuehnel, 2009. "Productive Government Expenditure And Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 692-733, 09.
  13. Henderson, Vernon, 2003. " The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 47-71, March.
  14. Steger, Thomas M., 2000. "Economic growth with subsistence consumption," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 343-361, August.
  15. de la Grandville,Olivier, 2009. "Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521725200, October.
  16. Holger Strulik, 2005. "Too Much of a Good Thing? The Quantitative Economics of R&D–driven Growth Revisited," Discussion Papers 05-26, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  17. repec:fth:stanho:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
  19. Grossmann, Volker, 2009. "Entrepreneurial innovation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 602-613, December.
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