Do Bubbles Lead to Overinvestment?: A Revealed Preference Approach
AbstractMany economists believe that the stock market plays an important role in efficiently allocating capital to its most productive uses. This standard story of the stock market was called into question by events in the late 1990s, when some observers believed that stock market overvaluation – or a bubble - led to overinvestment. Both the standard and overinvestment stories involve discount rates and, to differentiate between the two stories, this paper examines the discount rates used by firms in making their investment decisions.We use a revealed preference approach that relies on the pattern of investment spending – combined with investment theory – to estimate the discount rates used by managers. The standard story predicts that firms with high stock prices and good investment opportunities should have discount rates that do not differ systematically from the risk-adjusted market rate. The overinvestment story predicts that firms with high stock prices and poor investment opportunities should have discount rates consistently below the market rate.Based on a panel dataset of over 50,000 firm-year observations, we find support for both stories. The behavior of high stock price firms with good measured investment opportunities is best described by the standard story, while the overinvestment story provides the most appropriate interpretation of the behavior of high stock price firms with poor investment opportunities. Firms in this latter category accumulate between 15.1% and 45.2% too much capital. These estimates suggest that, even before they burst, bubbles adversely affect economic activity by misallocating capital.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3491.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
bubbles; investment; stock markets; real effects of financial markets; capital formation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stein, Jeremy C, 1996.
"Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-55, October.
- Huntley Schaller & Robert S. Chirinko, 1995.
"Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": the Japanese Case,"
Carleton Economic Papers
95-13, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2001. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 663-680, June.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 1996. "Business Fixed Investment and "Bubbles": The Japanese Case," Economics Series 28, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Maureen O'Hara, 2008. "Bubbles: Some Perspectives (and Loose Talk) from History," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 11-17, January.
- Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, September.
- Malcolm Baker, 2009. "Capital Market-Driven Corporate Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 181-205, November.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2003.
"A Revealed Preference Approach. To Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence From Canada,"
135, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2004. "A revealed preference approach to understanding corporate governance problems: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 181-206, October.
- Robert Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "A Revealed Preference Approach to Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence from Canada," Emory Economics 0210, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
- Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "A Revealed Preference Approach to Understanding Corporate Governance Problems: Evidence from Canada," CESifo Working Paper Series 826, CESifo Group Munich.
- Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
- Whited, Toni M, 1992.
" Debt, Liquidity Constraints, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from Panel Data,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1425-60, September.
- Toni M. Whited, 1990. "Debt, liquidity constraints, and corporate investment: evidence from panel data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994.
" Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-78, December.
- Josef Lakonishok & Robert W. Vishny & Andrei Shleifer, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," NBER Working Papers 4360, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Estimating the long-run user cost elasticity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(4), pages 725-736, May.
- Utpal Bhattacharya, 2008. "The Causes and Consequences of Recent Financial Market Bubbles: An Introduction," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 3-10, January.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.