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Asset Returns, the Business Cycle, and the Labor Market: A Sensitivity Analysis for the German Economy

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  • Burkhard Heer
  • Alfred Maussner

Abstract

We review the labor market implications of recent real-business-cycle models that successfully replicate the empirical equity premium. We document the fact that all models considered in this survey with the exception of Boldrin, Christiano, and Fisher (2001) imply a negative correlation of working hours and output that is not observed empirically, while in their model, the equity premium does not result from variation in the firm value, but from changes in the relative price of two goods. In addition, we calibrate the models with regard to characteristics from the German economy and show that the equity premium is very sensitive with regard to the utility parameters.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3391.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3391

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Keywords: equity premium; production CAPM; real-business cycle; labor market statistics;

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  1. Hafedh Bouakez & Takashi Kano, 2005. "Learning-by-Doing or Habit Formation?," Working Papers 05-15, Bank of Canada.
  2. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
  3. Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant, 2005. "Can a Time-to-Plan Model explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 7(2), pages 1-8.
  4. Plosser, C.I., 1989. "Understanding Real Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 198, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001. "Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
  7. De Paoli, Bianca & Scott, Alasdair & Weeken, Olaf, 2010. "Asset pricing implications of a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2056-2073, October.
  8. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
  9. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:7:y:2005:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
  12. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  13. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maussner, 2004. "Computation of Business Cycle Models: A Comparison of Numerical Methods," CESifo Working Paper Series 1207, CESifo Group Munich.
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