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Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Alessandro Girardi
  • Paolo Paesani

Abstract

Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell) orders tend to prevail. Risk-averse market-makers, with inventory-depletion risk being their main concern, tend to quote wider (narrower) spreads when they think bond appreciation is more (less) likely to occur. It is also found that the probability of being in a specific regime is related to observable bond market characteristics, stock market volatility, macroeconomic releases and liquidity management operations of the monetary authorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alessandro Girardi & Paolo Paesani, 2010. "Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 3281, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Price discovery and trade fragmentation in a multi-market environment: Evidence from the MTS system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 227-240.
    2. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2018. "An Indicator of Credit Crunch using Italian Business Surveys," MPRA Paper 88839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dufour, Alfonso & Stancu, Andrei & Varotto, Simone, 2017. "The equity-like behaviour of sovereign bonds," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 25-46.
    4. Buis, Boyd & Pieterse-Bloem, Mary & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2020. "Expected issuance fees and market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Weigerding, Michael, 2020. "Seasonal liquidity effects and their determinants on the covered bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 288-303.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    liquidity; trading activity; treasury bond market; Europe; commonality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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