Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Testing for Convergence in Stock Markets: A Non-Linear Factor Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Burcu Erdogan
  • Vladimir Kuzin
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US over the period 1973-2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including Euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-11/cesifo1_wp2845.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2845.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2845

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
    Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
    Fax: +49 (89) 985369
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: stock market; financial integration; European Monetary Union convergence; factor model;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    2. Heston, Steven L. & Rouwenhorst, K. Geert, 1994. "Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-27, August.
    3. William N.Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K.Geert Rouwenhorst, 2003. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 98, Netherlands Central Bank.
    4. Chen, Zhiwu & Knez, Peter J, 1995. "Measurement of Market Integration and Arbitrage," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 287-325.
    5. Robin Brooks & Marco Del Negro, 2002. "The rise in comovement across national stock markets: market integration or IT bubble?," Working Paper 2002-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    6. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
    7. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. " Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-44, June.
    9. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, 07.
    10. Campa, Jose Manuel & Fernandes, Nuno, 2006. "Sources of gains from international portfolio diversification," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 417-443, October.
    11. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2007. "Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1595, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    12. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ, & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2000. "EMU and Portfolio Diversification Opportunities," FAME Research Paper Series rp31, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    13. S Durlauf & Danny Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," CEP Discussion Papers dp0384, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 2007. "The impact of EMU on the equity cost of capital," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 305-327, March.
    15. Kpate ADJAOUTÉ & Jean-Pierre DANTHINE, 2003. "European Financial Integration and Equity Returns: A Theory-Based Assessment," FAME Research Paper Series rp84, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    16. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
    17. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2008. "Analysing Convergence in Europe Using a Non-linear Single Factor Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200802, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Integration in European retail banking: Evidence from savings and lending rates to non-financial corporations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1307-1327.
    2. Rughoo, Aarti & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2014. "The global financial crisis and integration in European retail banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 28-41.
    3. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & James Payne, 2011. "Political and Institutional Factors in the Convergence of International Equity Markets: Evidence from the Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 39(1), pages 7-18, March.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2845. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.