Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

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Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

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Christian Gollier ()

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Christian Gollier

Abstract

Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criterion implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and risk-neutral probabilities. We show that if the aggregate consumption path is optimized, the two criteria are equivalent. Moreover, they are also equivalent to the Ramsey rule extended to uncertainty.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2643.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2643

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Paper
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," IDEI Working Papers 557, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
- GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Working Papers 08.29.273, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Christian Gollier, 2005. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Gollier, Christian, 2004. "Maximizing the expected net future value as an alternative strategy to gamma discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 85-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2003. "Maximizing the Expected Net Future Value as an Alternative Strategy to Gamma Discounting," IDEI Working Papers 213, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Martin L. Weitzman, 2001. "Gamma Discounting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 260-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Martin L. Weitzman, 1998. "Gamma Discounting," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1843, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
Wolfgang Buchholz & Jan Schumacher, 2008. "Discounting the Long-Distant Future: A Simple Explanation for the Weitzman-Gollier-Puzzle," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Should we discount the far-distant future at its lowest possible rate?," Working Papers 08.30.274, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should We Discount the Far-Distant Future at Its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
- Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should we Discount the Far-Distant Future at its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(25), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
GOLLIER Christian & KOUNDOURI Phoebe & PANTELIDIS Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates : Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," Working Papers 08.17.261, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian & KOUNDOURI, Phoebe & PANTELIDIS, Theologos, 2008. "Declining Discount Rates: Economic Justifications and Implications for Long-Run Policy," IDEI Working Papers 525, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
- Christian Gollier & Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2008. "Declining discount rates: Economic justifications and implications for long-run policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 23, pages 757-795, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Discounting an uncertain future," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 149-166, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Gollier, Christian & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 1998. "Discounting an Uncertain Future," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich.
Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2008. "Discounting with Fat-Tailed Economic Growth," IDEI Working Papers 523, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
- GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Working Papers 08.19.263, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Martin L. Weitzman, 2007. "Subjective Expectations and Asset-Return Puzzles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1102-1130, September. [Downloadable!]
Weitzman, Martin L., 1998. "Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 201-208, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Hepburn, Cameron & Groom, Ben, 2007. "Gamma discounting and expected net future value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
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