Discounting the Long-Distant Future: A Simple Explanation for the Weitzman-Gollier-Puzzle

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Discounting the Long-Distant Future: A Simple Explanation for the Weitzman-Gollier-Puzzle

Author Info

Wolfgang Buchholz ()
Jan Schumacher ()

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Jan Schumacher

Abstract

In this paper, we reconsider the debate on Weitzman's (1998) suggestion to discount the long-run future at the lowest possible rate, referring to Gollier (2004) and Hepburn & Groom (2007). We show that, while Weitzman's use of the present value approach may indeed seem questionable, its outcome, i.e. a discount rate that is declining over time, is nevertheless reasonable, since it can be justified by assuming a plausible degree of risk aversion.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2357.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2357

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Jan Schumacher & Wolfgang Buchholz, 2008. "Discounting and Welfare Analysis Over Time: Choosing the ç," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
Gollier, Christian, 2004. "Maximizing the expected net future value as an alternative strategy to gamma discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 85-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2003. "Maximizing the Expected Net Future Value as an Alternative Strategy to Gamma Discounting," IDEI Working Papers 213, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Should we discount the far-distant future at its lowest possible rate?," Working Papers 08.30.274, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should We Discount the Far-Distant Future at Its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
- Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should we Discount the Far-Distant Future at its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(25), pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Working Papers 08.19.263, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2008. "Discounting with Fat-Tailed Economic Growth," IDEI Working Papers 523, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
- Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
GOLLIER Christian, 2008. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Working Papers 08.29.273, LERNA, University of Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- GOLLIER, Christian, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," IDEI Working Papers 557, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
- Christian Gollier, 2009. "Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]

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