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Demographic Change and Regional Labour Markets: The Case of Eastern Germany

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Author Info
Beate Henschel ()
Carsten Pohl ()
Marcel Thum ()

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Abstract

Demographic change will be one of the most challenging issues for industrialized economies in the decades to come. In this paper, we focus on the impact of demographic change on labour markets. By setting up a stylized model of a regional labour market, we are able to analyze the interaction of labour demand and supply during demographic transitions. The simulation results for eastern Germany, a forerunner in the demographic process, show that the population decline will not help to reduce the currently high unemployment among the low-skilled dramatically. Among the high-skilled, scarcities will play a major role and could impede the development of industrial centers.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo GmbH in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2315.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2315

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Related research
Keywords: demographic change labour market unemployment long-run projection general equilibrium

Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
R10 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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  1. Donghoon Lee & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 2006. "Intersectoral Labor Mobility and the Growth of the Service Sector," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 1-46, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Vegard Skirbekk, 2003. "Age and individual productivity: a literature survey," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-028, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. An, Chong-Bum & Jeon, Seung-Hoon, 2006. "Demographic change and economic growth: An inverted-U shape relationship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 447-454, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 43-53. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christensen, Laurits R & Jorgenson, Dale W & Lau, Lawrence J, 1973. "Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(1), pages 28-45, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fehr, Hans, 2000. " Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 102(3), pages 419-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-8-26.

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