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Deterministic versus Stochastic Seasonal Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks

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Author Info
Guglielmo Maria Caporale ()
Juncal Cunado ()
Luis A. Gil-Alana ()

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Abstract

This paper considers a general model which allows for both deterministic and stochastic forms of seasonality, including fractional (stationary and nonstationary) orders of integration, and also incorporating endogenously determined structural breaks. Monte Carlo analysis shows that the suggested procedure performs well even in small samples, accurately capturing the seasonal properties of the series, and correctly detecting the break date. As an illustration, the model is estimated for four different US series (output, consumption, imports and exports). The results suggest that the seasonal patterns of these variables have changed over time: specifically, in the second subsample the systematic component of seasonality becomes insignificant, whilst the degree of persistence increases.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocCIDL/cesifo1_wp1989.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1989.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1989

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Related research
Keywords: deterministic and stochastic seasonality; fractional integration; structural breaks;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2002. "Seasonal long memory in the aggregate output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 333-337, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2001. "Memory and infrequent breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 29-41, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. L. A. Gil-Alana & P. M. Robinson, 2001. "Testing of seasonal fractional integration in UK and Japanese consumption and income," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 95-114. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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