Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment" affects subsequent returns; and analyze the time path of the marginal product of capital in reaction to fundamental and misvaluation shocks. Besides these qualitative tests, we introduce a measure of misvaluation into standard investment equations to estimate the quantitative effect of misvaluation on investment. Overall, the evidence suggests that both fundamental and misvaluation shocks affect investment.
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number
CESifo Working Paper No. 1922.
Find related papers by JEL classification: E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
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