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Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Investment: The Real Story

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Author Info
Robert Chirinko ()
Huntley Schaller ()

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Abstract

Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stock market misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment" affects subsequent returns; and analyze the time path of the marginal product of capital in reaction to fundamental and misvaluation shocks. Besides these qualitative tests, we introduce a measure of misvaluation into standard investment equations to estimate the quantitative effect of misvaluation on investment. Overall, the evidence suggests that both fundamental and misvaluation shocks affect investment.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocCIDL/cesifo1_wp1922.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1922.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1922

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Related research
Keywords: investment; stock market; fundamentals; misvaluation; bubbles; real effects of financial markets;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 7659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Capital Budgeting vs. Market Timing: An Evaluation Using Demographics," NBER Working Papers 15184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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