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Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model

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  • Piotr Wdowinski

Abstract

In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to domestic and foreign interest rates and the EUR/USD exchange rate on economic growth in Poland over the period Q2, 1993 – Q2, 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Wdowinski, 2005. "Financial Markets and Economic Growth in Poland: Simulations with an Econometric Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1557, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1557
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pavlos Karadeloglou & George Chobanov & Aleš Delakorda & Wladyslaw Milo & Piotr Wdowinski, 2001. "The Exchange Rate, Prices and the Supply Response under Transition: A Simulation Study," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 6, pages 78-88, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Piotr Wdowinski, 2004. "Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland," CESifo Working Paper Series 1120, CESifo.
    3. Piotr Wdowinski & Bas Aarle, 2001. "Economic Performance in Poland under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response, chapter 10, pages 140-156, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Christos Papazoglou & Eric J. Pentecost (ed.), 2001. "Exchange Rate Policies, Prices and Supply-Side Response," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-55453-5.
    5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    6. Eric J. Pentecost, 1993. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 355.
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    Cited by:

    1. Irena Vodenska & Lou Chitkushev, 2013. "Impact of Euro Adoption on Emerging European Countries," Management, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 8(1), pages 49-70.
    2. Kai Konrad & Stergios Skaperdas, 2012. "The market for protection and the origin of the state," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(2), pages 417-443, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial market; economic growth; econometric model; simulation; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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