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A Trade Model with an Optimal Exchange Rate Motivated by Current Discussion of a Chinese Renminbi Float

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  • Hui Huang
  • Yi Wang
  • Yiming Wang
  • John Whalley
  • Shunming Zhang

Abstract

We combine a model of combined inter-spatial and inter-temporal trade between countries recently — used by Huang, Whalley and Zhang (2004) to analyze the merits of trade liberalization in services when goods trade is restricted — with a model of foreign exchange rationing due to Clarete and Whalley (1991) in which there is a fixed exchange rate with a surrender requirement for foreign exchange generated by exports. In this model, when services remain unliberalized there is an optimal trade intervention, even in the small open price-taking economy case. Given monetary policy and an endogenously determined premium value on foreign exchange, an optimal setting of the exchange rate can provide the optimal trade intervention. We suggest this model has relevance to the current situation in China where services remain unliberalized and tariff rates are bound in the WTO. Since there is an optimal exchange rate, a move to a free Renminbi float can be welfare worsening. We use numerical simulation methods to explore the properties of the model, since it has no closed form solution. Our analysis provides an intellectual counter argument to those presently advocating a free Renminbi float for China.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1471.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1471

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  1. Aadtya Mattoo, 2000. "Financial Services and the WTO: Liberalisation Commitments of the Developing and Transition Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 351-386, 03.
  2. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38.
  3. Clarete, Ramon & Whalley, John, 1991. "Foreign exchange premia and non-neutrality of monetary policy in general equilibrium models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 153-166, February.
  4. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
  5. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics, in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
  6. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  7. Zhang, Fan & Pan, Zuohong, 2004. "Determination of China's long-run nominal exchange rate and official intervention," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 360-365.
  8. Werner, Jan, 1985. "Equilibrium in economies with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 110-119, June.
  9. Hui Huang & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2005. "Trade Liberalization in a Joint Spatial Inter-Temporal Trade Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1463, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
  11. Duffie, Darrell, 1987. "Stochastic equilibria with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 405-416, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Dirk Niepelt & Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, 2007. "Sustaining Social Security," 2007 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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