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Optimal Portfolio Management for Individual Pension Plans

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  • Christian Gollier

Abstract

We explore the various arguments for and against the recommendation that younger households should invest a larger share of their pension wealth in risky assets. The ability of young agents to compensate their financial losses by saving more during their career provides the strongest argument in favour of younger people investing more aggressively in the stock market. Meanreversion in stock returns yields another argument. However, the uninsurability of the risky human capital goes in the opposite direction, together with the imperfect knowledge that young investors have about the distribution of asset returns.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2005/wp-cesifo-2005-02/cesifo1_wp1394.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1394.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1394

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Keywords: dynamic portfolio choice; pension plan; retirement; time horizon;

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References

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  1. George CHACKO & Luis M. VICEIRA, 1999. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," FAME Research Paper Series rp11, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  2. Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
  3. DREZE, Jacques H. & MODIGLIANI, Franco, . "Cosumption decisions under uncertainty," CORE Discussion Papers RP -119, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption And Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns Are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495, May.
  5. GHYSELS, Eric & HARVEY, Andrew & RENAULT, Eric, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CORE Discussion Papers 1995069, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-57, August.
  7. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September.
  8. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-61.
  9. Gennotte, Gerard, 1986. " Optimal Portfolio Choice under Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 733-46, July.
  10. Gollier Christian, 2004. "Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Risk with First-Order and Second-Order Predictability," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, September.
  11. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time diversification, liquidity constraints, and decreasing aversion to risk on wealth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1439-1459, October.
  12. Zvi Bodie & Robert C. Merton & William F. Samuelson, 1992. "Labor Supply Flexibility and Portfolio Choice in a Life-Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 3954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Leonid Kogan & Raman Uppal, . "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 13-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  14. Gollier, Christian & Pratt, John W, 1996. "Risk Vulnerability and the Tempering Effect of Background Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1109-23, September.
  15. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Gollier, Christian, 2007. "Assets Relative Risk for Long-term Investors," IDEI Working Papers 466, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  2. Ramon Moreno & Marjorie Santos, 2008. "Pension systems in EMEs: implications for capital flows and financial markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 45-69 Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Arjen Siegmann, 2008. "Minimum Funding Ratios for Defined-Benefit Pension Funds," DNB Working Papers 180, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  4. Gollier, Christian, 2007. "Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Risk-Taking of a Pension Fund," IDEI Working Papers 42, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.

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