Policy Duration Effect under Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis

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Policy Duration Effect under Zero Interest Rates: An Application of Wavelet Analysis

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Okina, Kunio
Shiratsuka, Shigenori

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Shigenori Shiratsuka

Abstract

A major feature of recent monetary policy in Japan has been heavy reliance on the so-called policy duration effect. This policy employs a commitment to compensate for the central bank's inability to lower the interest rate below zero by altering the anticipated course of monetary policy actions. This paper analyzes the behavior of the yield curve and examines the effectiveness and limitations of monetary policy commitment under zero interest rates with four indicators for policy duration effect. Specifically, we extend our previous study (Okina and Shiratsuka (2003)) by applying wavelet analysis to indicators for policy duration effect. As in the previous study, the policy duration effect was found to be highly effective in stabilizing market expectations for the path of short-term interest rates, thereby reducing longer-term interest rates and flattening the yield curve. The policy duration effect, however, failed to reverse deflationary expectations in financial markets.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 1138.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1138

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2004-05-02 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30. [Downloadable!]
Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
Other versions:
- David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 1999. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low inflation era," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
Okina, Kunio & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004. "Policy commitment and expectation formation: Japan's experience under zero interest rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 75-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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