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Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Ralph Setzer

Abstract

According to the traditional 'optimum currency area' approach, not much will be lost from a very hard peg to a currency union if there has been little reason for variations in the exchange rate. This paper takes a different approach and highlights the fact that high exchange rate volatility may as well signal high costs for labor markets. The impact of exchange rate volatility on labor markets in the CEECs is analyzed, finding that volatility vis-à-vis the euro significantly lowers employment growth. Hence, the elimination of exchange rate volatility could be considered as a substitute for a removal of employment protection legislation.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2003/wp-cesifo-2003-10/cesifo1_wp1056.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1056.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1056

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Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe; currency union; euroization; exchange rate variability; job creation;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Gilles Saint-Paul, 2009. "Le dollar, l’innovation et l’emploi," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 94(1), pages 107-115.
  2. Evžen Kočenda & Mathilde Maurel & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Short- and long-term growth effects of exchange rate adjustment," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00748599, HAL.
  3. Eliane Cristina de Araújo, 2011. "Volatilidade Cambial eCrescimento Econômico: Teorias e Evidencias para Economias emDesenvolvimento e Emergentes (1980 e 2007)," Anais do XXXVII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 37th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 105, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  4. Schnabl, Gunther & Ziegler, Christina, 2011. "Exchange rate and wage policies in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 347-360, May.
  5. Schweickert, Rainer & Thiele, Rainer, 2004. "From Washington to post-Washington? Consensus policies and divergent developments in Latin America and Asia," Kiel Discussion Papers 408, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  6. Gunther Schnabl & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime and Wage Determination in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 2471, CESifo Group Munich.

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