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Output Smoothing in EMU and OECD: Can We Forego Government Contribution? A Risk Sharing Approach

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  • Carlos Fonseca Marinheiro

Abstract

This paper analyses the smoothing of asymmetric shocks to output for a sample of OECD countries. It also examines whether the private capital markets will be able to replace the government in providing output smoothing in the euro-area, in the near future. The research finds no evidence of large differences in the patterns of risk sharing for the 19 OECD countries, the EU-15 or euro-area countries, for the period 1970-1999. However, there were shown to be considerable differences between the euro-area and the successful monetary union of the USA: the euro-area showed a much lower insurance of asymmetric shocks than the US states. Until increasing economic integration in Europe does not lead to a substantial decrease in the incidence of idiosyncratic shocks, such shocks may impose non-negligible welfare costs.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2003/wp-cesifo-2003-10/cesifo1_wp1051.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1051.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1051

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Keywords: EMU; output smoothing; risk sharing; international capital markets; economic integration;

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References

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  1. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "'Close-to-Balance or in Surplus': A Policy-Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
  2. Jacques Mélitz & Frédéric Zumer, 2000. "Interregional and International Risk Sharing and Lessons for EMU," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 2, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
  3. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
  4. Sorensen, B-E & Yosha, O, 1996. "International Risk Sharing and European Monetary Unification," Papers 40-96, Tel Aviv.
  5. André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  6. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2000. "Consumption risk-sharing across G-7 countries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 3-14.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul de Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of Optimum Currency Areas: What brings Countries Sharing a Single Currency Closer together?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 29, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
  2. Faruk Balli & Syed Abul Basherz & Rosmy Jean Louis, 2012. "Risk Sharing in the Middle East and North Africa: The Role of Remittances and Factor Incomes," CAMA Working Papers 2012-39, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Emil Stavrev, 2007. "Growth and Inflation Dispersions in EMU," IMF Working Papers 07/167, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Carlos Marinheiro, 2007. "The Stability and Growth Pact, Fiscal Policy Institutions, and Stabilization in Europe," GEMF Working Papers 2007-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  5. Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2011. "Union Monétaire en Afrique de l'Ouest: Quelles Réponses à l'Hétérogénéité des Chocs ?," Working Papers halshs-00554309, HAL.

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