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Finite Sample Performance in CointegrationAnalysis of Nonlinear Time Series with LongMemory

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Afonso Gonçalves da Silva
Peter M Robinson

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Abstract

Nonlinear functions of multivariate financial time series can exhibit longmemory and fractional cointegration. However, tools for analysingthese phenomena have principally been justified under assumptionsthat are invalid in this setting. Determination of asymptotic theoryunder more plausible assumptions can be complicated and lengthy.We discuss these issues and present a Monte Carlo study, showingthat asymptotic theory should not necessarily be expected to provide agood approximation to finite-sample behaviour.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2006/501.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2006/501

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Related research
Keywords: Fractional cointegration; memory estimation; stochastic volatility.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Marc Henry & Peter M Robinson, 1998. "Long and Short Memory Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Estimating the Memory Parameter of Levels - (Now published in Econometric Theory, 15 (1999), pp.299-336.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/357, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2005. "Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration," Working Papers 1189, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
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  4. Marinucci, D. & Robinson, P. M., 2001. "Semiparametric fractional cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 225-247, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Clifford M. Hurvich & Bonnie K. Ray, 2003. "The Local Whittle Estimator of Long-Memory Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 445-470.
  6. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, 2006. "Asymptotic normality of narrow-band least squares in the stationary fractional cointegration model and volatility forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 343-371, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nielsen, Morten Oe., . "Semiparametric Estimation in Time Series Regression with Long Range Dependence," Economics Working Papers 2002-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Federico Bandi & Benoit Perron, 2003. "Long memory and the relation between implied and realized volatility," Econometrics 0305004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Clifford M. Hurvich & Eric Moulines & Philippe Soulier, 2005. "Estimating Long Memory in Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1283-1328, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Javier Hidalgo & Peter M. Robinson, 2002. "Adapting to Unknown Disturbance Autocorrelation in Regression with Long Memory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1545-1581, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Robinson, Peter M. & Yajima, Yoshihiro, 2002. "Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 217-241, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. repec:taf:emetrv:v:24:y:2005:i:4:p:405-443 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Deo, Rohit S. & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2001. "On The Log Periodogram Regression Estimator Of The Memory Parameter In Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 686-710, August. [Downloadable!]
  14. Afonso Gonçalves da Silva & Peter M Robinson, 2007. "Fractional Cointegration In StochasticVolatility Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2007/519, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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