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A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles

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  • Violetta Dalla
  • Javier Hidalgo

Abstract

The paper proposes a simple test for the hypothesis of strong cycles and as a by-product a test for weak dependence for linear processes. We show that the limit distribution of the test is the maximum of a (semi)Gaussian process G(t), t ? [0; 1]. Because the covariance structure of G(t) is a complicated function of t and model dependent, to obtain the critical values (if possible) of maxt?[0;1] G(t) may be difficult. For this reason we propose a bootstrap scheme in the frequency domain to circumvent the problem of obtaining (asymptotically) valid critical values. The proposed bootstrap can be regarded as an alternative procedure to existing bootstrap methods in the time domain such as the residual-based bootstrap. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the bootstrap test by a small Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical example.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2005/486.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2005/486

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Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp

Related research

Keywords: Cyclical data; strong and weak dependence; spectral density functions; Whittle estimator; bootstrap algorithms;

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References

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  1. Miguel A. Delgado & Javier Hidalgo & Carlos Velasco, 2005. "Distribution Free Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Linear Processes," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/482, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  2. Peter M Robinson & Carlos Velasco, 2000. "Whittle Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series - (Now published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, (2000), pp.1229-1243.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/391, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  3. Javier Hidalgo, 2003. "An Alternative Bootstrap to Moving Blocks for Time Series Regression Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2003/452, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  4. Liudas Giraitis & Javier Hidalgo & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Gaussian Estimation of Parametric Spectral Density with Unknown Pole," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2001/424, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  5. Hall, Peter, 1990. "On the relative performance of bootstrap and Edgeworth approximations of a distribution function," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 108-129, October.
  6. Andrews, Donald W K, 2001. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
  7. Pham, Tuan D. & Tran, Lanh T., 1985. "Some mixing properties of time series models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-303, April.
  8. Hidalgo, J. & Kreiss, J.-P., 2006. "Bootstrap specification tests for linear covariance stationary processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 807-839, August.
  9. Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
  10. Hidalgo, Javier, 2003. "An alternative bootstrap to moving blocks for time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-399, December.
  11. Velasco, Carlos & Robinson, Peter M., . "Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for nonstationary time series," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/4434, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
  12. Josu Artech & Peter M Robinson, 1998. "Semiparametric Inference in Seasonal and Cyclical Long Memory Processes - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 21 (2000), pp.1-25.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/359, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  13. Dean Prichard & James Theiler, 1994. "Generating Surrogate Data for Time Series with Several Simultaneously Measured Variables," Working Papers 94-04-023, Santa Fe Institute.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 344, Econometric Society.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing For Deterministic And Stochastic Cycles In Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2010. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 975, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 3653, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in US Hours Worked," CESifo Working Paper Series 3767, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Faria, João Ricardo & Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2009. "Unemployment and entrepreneurship: A cyclical relation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 318-320, December.
  7. Uwe Hassler, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Post-Print peer-00815563, HAL.
  8. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  9. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "A Non-Linear Approach with Long Range Dependence Based on Chebyshev Polynomials," Working Papers 2012013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 2648, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Hassler, Uwe, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 240-247, June.
  12. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Time series modelling of sunspot numbers using long range cyclical dependence," Faculty Working Papers 06/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.

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