A Parametric Bootstrap Test for Cycles
Abstract
The paper proposes a simple test for the hypothesis of strong cycles and as a by-product a test for weak dependence for linear processes. We show that the limit distribution of the test is the maximum of a (semi)Gaussian process G(t), t ? [0; 1]. Because the covariance structure of G(t) is a complicated function of t and model dependent, to obtain the critical values (if possible) of maxt?[0;1] G(t) may be difficult. For this reason we propose a bootstrap scheme in the frequency domain to circumvent the problem of obtaining (asymptotically) valid critical values. The proposed bootstrap can be regarded as an alternative procedure to existing bootstrap methods in the time domain such as the residual-based bootstrap. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the bootstrap test by a small Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical example.Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2005/486.Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2005/486
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp
Related research
Keywords: Cyclical data; strong and weak dependence; spectral density functions; Whittle estimator; bootstrap algorithms;Other versions of this item:
- Dalla, Violetta & Hidalgo, Javier, 2005. "A parametric bootstrap test for cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 219-261.
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2006-02-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2006-02-26 (Econometric Time Series)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Miguel A. Delgado & Javier Hidalgo & Carlos Velasco, 2005.
"Distribution Free Goodness-of-Fit Tests for Linear Processes,"
STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series
/2005/482, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Delgado, Miguel A. & Hidalgo, Javier & Velasco, Carlos, . "Distribution free goodness-of-fit tests for linear processes," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/2491, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Delgado, Miguel A. & Hidalgo, Javier & Velasco, Carlos, . "Distribution free goodness-of-fit tests for linear processes," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/4375, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Peter M Robinson & Carlos Velasco, 2000. "Whittle Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Nonstationary Time Series - (Now published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, 95, (2000), pp.1229-1243.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/391, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Javier Hidalgo, 2003. "An Alternative Bootstrap to Moving Blocks for Time Series Regression Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2003/452, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Liudas Giraitis & Javier Hidalgo & Peter M Robinson, 2001. "Gaussian Estimation of Parametric Spectral Density with Unknown Pole," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2001/424, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Hall, Peter, 1990. "On the relative performance of bootstrap and Edgeworth approximations of a distribution function," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 108-129, October.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 2001.
"Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1999. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1229, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Pham, Tuan D. & Tran, Lanh T., 1985. "Some mixing properties of time series models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 297-303, April.
- Hidalgo, J. & Kreiss, J.-P., 2006. "Bootstrap specification tests for linear covariance stationary processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 807-839, August.
- Lobato, Ignacio N & Robinson, Peter M, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 475-95, July.
- Hidalgo, Javier, 2003. "An alternative bootstrap to moving blocks for time series regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 369-399, December.
- Velasco, Carlos & Robinson, Peter M., .
"Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for nonstationary time series,"
Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
info:hdl:10016/4434, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Velasco, Carlos & Robinson, Peter M., . "Whittle pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for nonstationary time series," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/4374, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Josu Artech & Peter M Robinson, 1998. "Semiparametric Inference in Seasonal and Cyclical Long Memory Processes - (Now published in Journal of Time Series Analysis, 21 (2000), pp.1-25.)," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /1998/359, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Dean Prichard & James Theiler, 1994. "Generating Surrogate Data for Time Series with Several Simultaneously Measured Variables," Working Papers 94-04-023, Santa Fe Institute.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- L.A. Gil-Alana & G.M. caporale, 2004.
"Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market,"
Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings
344, Econometric Society.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Long-run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," Economics Series 155, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Long Run And Cyclical Dynamics In The Us Stock Market," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 05-09, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "Long Run and Cyclical Dynamics in the US Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 2046, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005.
"Testing For Deterministic And Stochastic Cycles In Macroeconomic Time Series,"
Economics and Finance Discussion Papers
05-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2007. "Testing for deterministic and stochastic cycles in macroeconomic time series," Empirica, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 155-169, April.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2010.
"Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
975, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Long Memory and Volatility Dynamics in the US Dollar Exchange Rate," Faculty Working Papers 04/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011.
"Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3653, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Persistence and Cyclical Dependence in the Monthly Euribor Rate," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1165, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012.
"Persistence and Cycles in US Hours Worked,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3767, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Persistence and Cycles in US Hours Worked," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1200, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Faria, João Ricardo & Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2009. "Unemployment and entrepreneurship: A cyclical relation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 318-320, December.
- Uwe Hassler, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Post-Print peer-00815563, HAL.
- Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012.
"A Non-Linear Approach with Long Range Dependence Based on Chebyshev Polynomials,"
Working Papers
2012013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Non-linear Approach with Long Range Dependence based on Chebyshev Polynomials," Faculty Working Papers 14/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "A non-linear approach with long range dependence based on Chebyshev polynomials," Working Papers 13-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009.
"Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2648, CESifo Group Munich.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Multi-Factor Gegenbauer Processes and European Inflation Rates," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 879, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Hassler, Uwe, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 240-247, June.
- Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2009. "Time series modelling of sunspot numbers using long range cyclical dependence," Faculty Working Papers 06/09, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2005/486For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

