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Estimating Semiparametric ARCH (8) Models by Kernel Smoothing Methods

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Author Info
Oliver Linton
Enno Mammen

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Abstract

We investigate a class of semiparametric ARCH(8) models that includes as a special case the partially nonparametric (PNP) model introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) and which allows for both flexible dynamics and flexible function form with regard to the 'news impact' function. We propose an estimation method that is based on kernel smoothing and profiled likelihood. We establish the distribution theory of the parametric components and the pointwise distribution of the nonparametric component of the model. We also discuss efficiency of both the parametric and nonparametric part. We investigate the performance of our procedures on simulated data and on a sample of S&P500 daily returns. We find some evidence of asymmetric news impact functions in the data.

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Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2003/453.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2003/453

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Keywords: ARCH; inverse problem; kernel estimation; news impact curve; nonparametric regression; profile likelihood; semiparametric estimation; volatility;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woocheol Kim & Oliver Linton, 2004. "A Local Instrumental Variable Estimation Method For Generalized Additive Volatility Models," FMG Discussion Papers dp509, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Linton, Oliver, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(04), pages 539-569, August. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Darolles, S. & Florens, J.-P. & Renault, É., 2002. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Cahiers de recherche 05-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Masry, Elias & Tj?stheim, Dag, 1997. "Additive Nonlinear ARX Time Series and Projection Estimates," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(02), pages 214-252, April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carroll, Raymond J. & H rdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2002. "Estimation In An Additive Model When The Components Are Linked Parametrically," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 886-912, August. [Downloadable!]
  6. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Pagan, Adrian R. & Schwert, G. William, 1990. "Alternative models for conditional stock volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 267-290. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Joel Horowitz & Enno Mammen, 2002. "Nonparametric estimation of an additive model with a link function," CeMMAP working papers CWP19/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  10. W. H"Ardle & A. Tsybakov & L. Yang, . "Nonparametric Vector Autoregression," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-61, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  11. John Rust, 1997. "Using Randomization to Break the Curse of Dimensionality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 487-516, May.
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  12. R.J. Carroll & W. Härdle & E. Mammen, . "Estimation in an additive model when the components are linked parametrically," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-1, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  13. Wu, Guojun & Xiao, Zhijie, 2002. "A generalized partially linear model of asymmetric volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-319, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain, 1992. "Qualitative threshold ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 159-199. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Oliver Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen, 1997. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm Under Weak Conditions," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1160, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  16. L. Yang & W. H"Ardle, . "Nonparametric Autoregression with Multiplicative Volatility and Additive Mean," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1996-62, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  17. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Carrasco, Marine & Chen, Xiaohong, 2002. "Mixing And Moment Properties Of Various Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 17-39, February. [Downloadable!]
  19. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March. [Downloadable!]
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:2:p:214-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. O. Linton & E. Mammen & J. Nielsen & C. Tanggaard, . "Estimating Yield Curves by Kernel Smoothing Methods," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1999-54, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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  23. Peter Hall & Joel L. Horowitz, 2003. "Nonparametric methods for inference in the presence of instrumental variables," CeMMAP working papers CWP02/03, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  24. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-59, October.
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  26. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  27. repec:cup:etheor:v:9:y:1993:i:4:p:539-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. W. H"Ardle & O. Linton, . "Nonparametric Regression," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 1995-29, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  29. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen, 2006. "Nonparametric Transformation to White Noise," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2006/503, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Christian Conrad & Enno Mammen, 2008. "Nonparametric Regression on Latent Covariates with an Application to Semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean Models," Working Papers 0473, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gregory Connor & Matthias Hagmann & Oliver Linton, 2007. "Efficient Estimation of a SemiparametricCharacteristic-Based Factor Model of Security Returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2007/524, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Woocheol Kim, 2004. "Identification And Estimation Of Nonparametric Structural," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 733, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Emma M. Iglesias & Oliver Linton, 2009. "Estimation of tail thickness parameters from GJR-GARCH models," Economics Working Papers we094726, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía. [Downloadable!]
  6. Christian M. Dahl & Emma M. Iglesias, 2008. "The limiting properties of the QMLE in a general class of asymmetric volatility models," CREATES Research Papers 2008-38, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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