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Yield Curve Estimation by Kernel Smoothing Methods

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Author Info

  • Oliver Linton
  • Enno Mammen
  • Jens Perch Nielsen
  • C Tanggaard

Abstract

We introduce a new method for the estimation of discount functions, yield curves and forward curves from government issued coupon bonds. Our approach is nonparametric and does not assume a particular functional form for the discount function although we do show how to impose various restrictions in the estimation. Our method is based on kernel smoothing and is defined as the minimum of some localized population moment condition. The solution to the sample problem is not explicit and our estimation procedure is iterative, rather like the backfitting method of estimating additive nonparametric models. We establish the asymptotic normality of our methods using the asymptotic representation of our estimator as an infinite series with declining coefficients. The rate of convergence is standard for one dimensional nonparametric regression. We investigate the finite sample performance of our method, in comparison with other well-established methods, in a small simulation experiment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /2000/385.

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Date of creation: Apr 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cep:stiecm:/2000/385

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Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp

Related research

Keywords: Coupon bonds; kernel estimation; Hilbert space; nonparametric regression; term structure estimation; yield curve; zero coupon.;

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References

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  1. Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & Waldman, Donald W., 1984. "A New Approach to Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(03), pages 233-252, September.
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  3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
  4. Oliver Linton, 2000. "Efficient estimation of generalized additive nonparametric regression models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 314, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Oliver Linton & Enno Mammen & N Nielsen, 2000. "The Existence and Asymptotic Properties of a Backfitting Projection Algorithm under Weak Conditions," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2000/386, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Lown, Cara S, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-30, May.
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  23. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1995. " The Predictive Power of Yield Spreads for Future Interest Rates: Evidence from the Danish Term Structure," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 145-59, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Severini, Thomas A. & Tripathi, Gautam, 2006. "Some Identification Issues In Nonparametric Linear Models With Endogenous Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 258-278, April.
  2. Oliver Linton & Andrew Jeffrey & Thong Nguyen, 2001. "Flexible Term Structure Estimation: Which Method is Preferred?," FMG Discussion Papers dp385, Financial Markets Group.
  3. Enno Mammen & Byeong U. Park & Melanie Schienle, 2012. "Additive Models: Extensions and Related Models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2012-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Tatyana Krivobokova & Göran Kauermann & Theofanis Archontakis, 2006. "Estimating the term structure of interest rates using penalized splines," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 443-459, June.
  5. Xiaohong Chen & Oliver Linton & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2003. "Estimation of semiparametric models when the criterion function is not smooth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2167, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. David Jamieson Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
  7. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  8. Ivailo Arsov & Matthew Brooks & Mitch Kosev, 2013. "New Measures of Australian Corporate Credit Spreads," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-26, December.
  9. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Hotta, Luiz Koodi, 2010. "Bayesian extensions to Diebold-Li term structure model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 342-350, December.
  10. Michiel De Pooter, 2007. "Examining the Nelson-Siegel Class of Term Structure Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-043/4, Tinbergen Institute.

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