AbstractUnit root in output, an exceptional 2% rate of convergence, and no change in the underlying dynamics of output seems to be three stylized facts that can not go together. This paper extends the Solow-Swan growth model allowing for cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this framework, aggregate shocks might vanish at an hyperbolic rather than at an exponential rate. This implies that the level of output can exhibit long memory and that standard tests fail to reject the null of a unit root despite mean conversion. Exploiting secular time series properties of GDP, we conclude that traditional approaches to test for uniform (conditional and unconditional) convergence suit first-step approximation. We show both theoretically and empirically how the uniform 2% rate of convergence repeatedly found in the empirical literature is the outcome of an underlying parameter of fractional integration strictly between 0.5 and 1. This is consistent with both time series and cross-sectional evidence recently produced.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series with number /1997/332.
Date of creation: Jul 1997
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Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp
growth model; convergence; long memory; aggregation;
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- Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2003. "Testing for a Unit Root Against Fractional Alternatives in the Presence of a Maintained Trend," Working Papers 29, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Laura Mayoral, 2001. "A New Minimum Distance Estimation Procedure of ARFIMA Processes," Working Papers 100, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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