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On the Non-Stationarity of German Income Mobility (and some observations on poverty dynamics)

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  • Christian Schluter
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    Abstract

    The intra-distributional mobility of German income dynamics is analysed using GSOEP. Transition probabilities are found to be time-varying. The tested models comprise various mixed Markov chains in discrete time and a non-stationary mover-stayer model is proposed. In order to explain the observed mobility profiles, we concentrate on one important income class - the poor - instead of the entire transition matrix. Various poverty duration models accommodating unobserved population heterogeneity and duration dependence are examined.

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    File URL: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/darp/darp30.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE in its series STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers with number 30.

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    Date of creation: Apr 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:cep:stidar:30

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    Web page: http://sticerd.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/default.asp

    Related research

    Keywords: Intra-distributional mobility; Markovian models; time-varying transition probabilities; poverty.;

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    1. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Smeeding, Timothy M. & Merz, Joachim, 1994. "Relative Inequality and Poverty in Germany and the United States Using Alternative Equivalence Scales," MPRA Paper 16295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Distribution and Inequality in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 16, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    3. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-56, July.
    4. Christian Schluter, 1996. "Income Mobility in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data," STICERD - Distributional Analysis Research Programme Papers 17, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. John Bound & Alan B. Krueger, 1989. "The Extent of Measurement Error In Longitudinal Earnings Data: Do Two Wrongs Make A Right?," NBER Working Papers 2885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jenkins, Stephen P, 1995. "Easy Estimation Methods for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(1), pages 129-38, February.
    7. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
    8. Ruggles, Patricia & Williams, Roberton, 1989. "Longitudinal Measures of Poverty: Accounting for Income and Assets over Time," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 35(3), pages 225-43, September.
    9. Trede, Mark M., 1994. "Statistical inference in mobility measurement: Sex differences in earnings mobility," Discussion Papers in Statistics and Econometrics 4/94, University of Cologne, Department for Economic and Social Statistics.
    10. Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1995. "Measurement Error and Earnings Dynamics: Some Estimates from the PSID Validation Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 305-14, July.
    11. repec:ese:iserwp:96-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
    13. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
    14. Burton Singer & Seymour Spilerman, 1976. "Some Methodological Issues in the Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 5, number 4, pages 447-474 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
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