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A Test Between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data

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Author Info
Melvyn Coles
Barbara Petrongolo

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Abstract

This paper tests whether aggregate matching is consistent with unemployment being mainly due to search frictions or due to job queues. Using U.K. data and correcting for temporal aggregation bias, estimates of the random matching function are consistent with previous work in this field, but random matching is formally rejected by the data. The data instead support 'stock-flow' matching. Estimates find that around 40 per cent of newly unemployed workers match quickly - they are interpreted as being on the short-side of their skill markets. The remaining workers match slowly, their re-employment rates depending statistically on the inflow of new vacancies and not on the vacancy stock. Having failed to match with existing vacancies, these workers wait for the arrival of new job vacancies. The results have important policy implications, particularly with reference to the design of optimal unemployment insurance programs.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0570.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0570

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Related research
Keywords: Matching; Unemployment; Temporal aggregation;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Berman, Eli, 1997. "Help Wanted, Job Needed: Estimates of a Matching Function from Employment Service Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S251-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Jackman & Christopher A. Pissarides & S Savouri, 1990. "Labour Market Policies and Unemployment in the OECD," CEP Discussion Papers dp0011, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  5. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Yashiv, E., 1999. "The Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment," Papers 36-99, Tel Aviv.
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  7. Ricardo Lagos, 2000. "An Alternative Approach to Search Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 851-873, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Montgomery, James D, 1991. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion and Interindustry Wage Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 163-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Coles, Melvyn G, 1999. "Turnover Externalities with Marketplace Trading," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(4), pages 851-68, November.
  11. Daron Acemoglu & Robert Shimer, 1999. "Efficient Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(5), pages 893-928, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fredriksson, Peter & Holmlund, Bertil, 2001. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 370-99, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Coles, Melvyn G & Smith, Eric, 1998. "Marketplaces and Matching," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 239-54, February.
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  14. Steven Shavell & Laurence Weiss, 1978. "The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 503, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Coles, Melvyn G & Muthoo, Abhinay, 1998. "Strategic Bargaining and Competitive Bidding in a Dynamic Market Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(2), pages 235-60, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Taylor, Curtis R, 1995. "The Long Side of the Market and the Short End of the Stick: Bargaining Power and Price Formation in Buyers', Sellers', and Balanced Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 837-55, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Cahuc, Pierre & Lehmann, Etienne, 2000. "Should unemployment benefits decrease with the unemployment spell?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 135-153, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1997. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 412-38, April.
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  21. Alex Bryson & Lorenzo Cappellari & Claudio Lucifora, 2003. "Does Union Membership Really Reduce Job Satisfaction?," CEP Discussion Papers dp0569, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Burdett, Kenneth & Coles, Melvyn G & van Ours, Jan C, 1994. "Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stock-Flow Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Katharine G. Abraham, 1987. "Help-Wanted Advertising, Job Vacancies, and Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1987-1), pages 207-248. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jos van Ommeren & Giovanni Russo, 2004. "Sequential or Non-sequential Recruitment?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-109/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 15 Sep 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Martyn Andrews & Steve Bradley & Richard Upward, 2006. "Testing theories of labour market matching," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0630, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Robert Shimer, 2006. "Mismatch," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. van Ommeren, Jos & Russo, Giovanni, 2009. "Firm Recruitment Behaviour: Sequential or Non-Sequential Search?," IZA Discussion Papers 4008, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. Jekaterina Dmitrijeva & Mihails Hazans, 2005. "A stock-flow matching approach to evaluation of public training program in a high unemployment environment," Labor and Demography 0506007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Aki Kangasharju & Jaakko Pehkonen & Sari Pekkala, 2005. "Returns to scale in a matching model: evidence from disaggregated panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 115-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sunde, Uwe, 2002. "Unobserved Bilateral Search on the Labor Market: A Theory-Based Correction for a Common Flaw in Empirical Matching Studies," IZA Discussion Papers 520, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Stephen R.G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 2002. "Unemployment and Non-Employment: Heterogeneities in Labour Market States," Department of Economics Working Papers 2002-05, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Martyn Andrews & Steve Bradley & Dave Stott & Richard Upward, 2006. "Why do job-seeker and vacancy hazards slope downwards? Estimating a two-sidedsearch model of the labour market," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0635, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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