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Spatial Evolution of the US Urban System

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Author Info
Y Ioannides
Henry Overman

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Abstract

We test implications of economic geography models for location, size and growth of cities with US Census data for 1900 û 1990. Our tests involve non-parametric estimations of stochastic kernels for the distributions of city sizes and growth rates, conditional on various measures of market potential and on features sizes of neighbors. We show that while these relationships change during the twentieth century, by 1990 they stabilize such that the size distribution of cities conditional on a range of spatial variables are all roughly independent of these conditioning variables. In contrast, similar results suggest that there is a spatial element to the city wage distribution. Our parametric estimations for growth rates against market potential, entry of neighbors, and own lagged population imply a negative effect of market potential on growth rates, unless own lagged population is also included, in which case market potential has a positive effect and own lagged population a negative one. Cities grow faster when they are small relative to their market potential. In total, our results support some theoretical predictions, but also provide a number of interesting puzzles.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0482.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0482

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Keywords: Urban growth; spatial evolution; economic geography;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Yannis M. Ioannides & Henry G. Overman, 1999. "Cross-Sectional Evolution of the U.S. City Size Distribution," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9926, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya, 1997. "Structural stability and evolution of urban systems," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 399-442, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "First Nature, Second Nature, and Metropolitan Location," NBER Working Papers 3740, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya, 1996. "The role of ports in the making of major cities: Self-agglomeration and hub-effect," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 93-120, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Paul Krugman, 1992. "A Dynamic Spatial Model," NBER Working Papers 4219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 1998. "Urban Agglomeration and Dispersion: A Synthesis of Alonso and Krugman," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 333-351, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1996. "Confronting the Mystery of Urban Hierarchy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-418, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ioannides, Yannis M. & Overman, Henry G., 2003. "Zipf's law for cities: an empirical examination," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 127-137, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fujita, Masahisa & Krugman, Paul & Mori, Tomoya, 1999. "On the evolution of hierarchical urban systems1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 209-251, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ellison, Glenn & Glaeser, Edward L, 1997. "Geographic Concentration in U.S. Manufacturing Industries: A Dartboard Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 889-927, October.
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  15. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf'S Law For Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Sukkoo Kim, 1997. "Economic Integration and Convergence: U.S. Regions, 1840-1987," NBER Working Papers 6335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lynne Pepall & Daniel Richards, 2000. "Merger Wars: Bidding for Complementary Assets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0020, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tomoya Mori & Koji Nishikimi & Tony E. Smith, 2002. "Some Empirical Regularities of Spatial Economies: A Relationship between Industrial Location and City Size," KIER Working Papers 551, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Goerlich, Francisco José & Mas, Matilde, 2008. "Los motores de la aglomeración en España: geografía versus historia," MPRA Paper 15797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
  4. Yannis M. Ioannides, 2008. "Intercity Trade and Convergent versus Divergent Urban Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0723, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sergio J. Rey, 2001. "Spatial Dependence in the Evolution of Regional Income Distributions," Urban/Regional 0105001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Goerlich, Francisco José & Mas, Matilde, 2009. "Drivers of Agglomeration: geography VS. History," MPRA Paper 15802, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giuseppe Arbia & Giuseppe Espa & Danny Quah, 2008. "A class of spatial econometric methods in the empirical analysis of clusters of firms in the space," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 81-103, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Goerlich, Francisco José & Mas, Matilde, 2008. "Pautas de localización de la población a lo largo del siglo XX
    [Population localization patterns along the XX century]    ," MPRA Paper 15824, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
  9. Naude, Wim, 2007. "Geography and Development in Africa: Overview and Implications for Regional Cooperation," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  10. Xavier Gabaix & Yannis M. Ioannides, 2003. "The Evolution of City Size Distributions," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0310, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Guy Michaels & Ferdinand Rauch & Stephen Redding, 2008. "Urbanisation and Structural Transformation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0892, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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