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Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues

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Author Info
W Buiter
G Corsetti
P Pesenti

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Abstract

Most interpretations of the Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992-93 ignore the key role played by structural policy spillovers among European countries, and overlook the effects of coordination (or lack thereof) of monetary and exchange rate policies among the countries making up the periphery of the system. This paper provides a simple analytical framework, able to encompass the recent literature on currency crises, while developing it by bringing out the decisive role of the strategic interactions among national policy makers in a multi-country monetary and exchange rate game. In contrast to an approach that focuses exclusively on country-specific issues, a systemic view is ultimately able to unravel more coherently, and more convincingly, the "puzzles" of the ERM crisis.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number 0321.

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Date of creation: Jan 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:0321

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  1. Bulow, Jeremy I & Geanakoplos, John D & Klemperer, Paul D, 1985. "Multimarket Oligopoly: Strategic Substitutes and Complements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(3), pages 488-511, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Corsetti, G. & Cavallari, L., 1996. "Policy Making and Speculative Attacks in Models of Exchange Rate Crises: A Synthesis," Papers 752, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1988. "Ambiguous Policy Multipliers in Theory and in Empirical Models," NBER Reprints 1076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Drazen, Allan & Masson, Paul R, 1994. "Credibility of Policies versus Credibility of Policymakers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 735-54, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. W Buiter & G Corsetti & P Pesenti, 1995. "A Center-Periphery Model of Monetary Coordination and Exchange Rate Crises," CEP Discussion Papers 0246, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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  7. Campa, J.M. & Chang, P.H.K., 1995. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," Papers 95-25, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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  8. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio, 1993. "On the Feasibility of a One- or Multi-Speed European Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 792, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1995. "Double-Edged Incentives: Institutions and Policy Coordination," CEPR Discussion Papers 1141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Maurice Obstfeld., 1996. "Destabilizing Effects of Exchange-Rate Escape Clauses," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-075, University of California at Berkeley.
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  13. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hamada, Koichi, 1976. "A Strategic Analysis of Monetary Interdependence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 677-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcelo Sánchez, 2005. "Is time ripe for a currency union in emerging East Asia? The role of monetary stabilisation," Working Paper Series 567, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Axel A. Weber, 1998. "Sources of currency crises: an empirical analysis," Working Papers 25, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Fabio Ghironi, 1998. "European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation," International Trade 9804001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post 1993 Experience," Working Papers 77, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  5. Peter Brandner & Harald Grech, 2002. "Why Did Central Banks Intervene in the EMS? The Post-1993 Experience," WIFO Working Papers 192, WIFO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Giancarol Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Competitive devaluations: a welfare-based approach," Staff Reports 58, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Giorgio Fazio & Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction: A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. John Eatwell & Lance Taylor, 1998. "The Performance of Liberalized Capital Markets," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-13, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), New School University, revised Sep 1998. [Downloadable!]
  10. Marco Cipriani & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2006. "Volatility in International Financial Market Issuance: The Role of the Financial Center," NBER Working Papers 12587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Weber, Axel A., 1997. "Sources of Currency Crisis: An Empirical Analysis," Discussion Paper Serie B 418, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Eatwell & Lance Taylor, 1998. "International Capital Markets and the Future of Economic Policy," SCEPA Working Papers 1998-14, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), New School University, revised Sep 1998. [Downloadable!]
  13. Mundaca,B.G. & Strand,J., 1999. "Speculative attacks in the exchange market with a band policy : a sequential game analysis," Memorandum 01/1999, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction," CEPR Discussion Papers 3870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. W Buiter & A Sibert, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the International Financial Architecture," CEP Discussion Papers 0425, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  17. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Large Players in Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 8303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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