Declining Migration wihin the US: The Role of the Labor Market
AbstractInterstate migration has decreased steadily since the 1980s. We show that this trend is not related to demographic and socioeconomic factors, but that it appears to be connected to a concurrent secular decline in labor market transitions—i.e. the fraction of workers changing employer, industry or occupation. We explore a number of reasons for the dual trends in geographic and labor market transitions, including changes in the distribution of job opportunities across space, polarization in the labor market, concerns of dual-career households, and changes in the net benefit to changing employers. We find little empirical support for all but the last of these hypotheses. Specifically, using data from three cohorts of the National Longitudinal Surveys spanning the 1970s to the 2000s, we find that wage gains associated with employer transitions have fallen, while the returns to staying with the same employer have not changed. We favor the interpretation that, at least from the 1990s to the 2000s, the distribution of outside offers has shifted in a way that has made labor market transitions, and thus geographic transitions, less desirable to workers.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau in its series Working Papers with number 13-53.
Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2013. "Declining migration within the US: the role of the labor market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-MIG-2013-12-06 (Economics of Human Migration)
- NEP-URE-2013-12-06 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Craig Garthwaite & Tal Gross & Matthew J. Notowidigdo, 2013. "Public Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Employment Lock," NBER Working Papers 19220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan Gruber & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2002.
"Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Job Mobility: A Critical Review of the Literature,"
JCPR Working Papers
255, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
- Jonathan Gruber & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2002. "Health Insurance, Labor Supply, and Job Mobility: A Critical Review of the Literature," NBER Working Papers 8817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hyatt, Henry R. & Spletzer, James R., 2013.
"The Recent Decline in Employment Dynamics,"
IZA Discussion Papers
7231, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012.
"Negative equity does not reduce homeowners’ mobility,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2010. "Negative equity does not reduce homeowners' mobility," Working Papers 682, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2011. "Negative Equity Does Not Reduce Homeowners' Mobility," NBER Working Papers 16701, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moshe Buchinsky & Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Rusty Tchernis, 2008.
"Interfirm Mobility, Wages, and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S,"
Caepr Working Papers
2008-006, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Buchinsky, Moshe & Fougère, Denis & Kramarz, Francis & Tchernis, Rusty, 2005. "Interfirm Mobility, Wages, and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S," IZA Discussion Papers 1521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Moshe Buchinsky & Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz & Rusty Tchernis, 2002. "Interfirm Mobility, Wages and the Returns to Seniority and Experience in the U.S," Working Papers 2002-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2009. "Intangible Capital And U.S. Economic Growth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 661-685, 09.
- Steven J. Davis & Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2011.
"Labor Market Flows in the Cross Section and Over Time,"
NBER Working Papers
17294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davis, Steven J. & Faberman, R. Jason & Haltiwanger, John, 2012. "Labor market flows in the cross section and over time," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-18.
- Parent, Daniel, 2000. "Industry-Specific Capital and the Wage Profile: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 306-23, April.
- Katz, Lawrence F & Murphy, Kevin M, 1992.
"Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78, February.
- Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," NBER Working Papers 3927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katz, L.F. & Murphy, K.M., 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1580, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Timothy Dunne & Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Kenneth R. Troske, 2004. "Wage and Productivity Dispersion in United States Manufacturing: The Role of Computer Investment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 397-430, April.
- Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1988.
"Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men,"
NBER Working Papers
2649, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012.
"Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration,"
NBER Working Papers
18507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2012. "Understanding the long-run decline in interstate migration," Working Papers 697, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Krueger, Alan & Rouse, Cecilia, 1998. "The Effect of Workplace Education on Earnings, Turnover, and Job Performance," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 61-94, January.
- Neal, Derek, 1995. "Industry-Specific Human Capital: Evidence from Displaced Workers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(4), pages 653-77, October.
- Judith K. Hellerstein & David Neumark, 1995. "Are Earnings Profiles Steeper Than Productivity Profiles? Evidence from Israeli Firm-Level Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(1), pages 89-112.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1979.
"Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 972-90, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fariha Kamal).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.