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Inflation Risk and Portfolio Allocation in the Banking System

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  • Pablo Druck
  • Pietro Garibaldi

Abstract

This paper proposes theory and evidence on the relationship between inflation and the bank's portfolio allocation. The proposed idea rationalized what Rodriguez (1992) pointed out with respect to the Central Bank of Argentina, behaving as a "borrower of first resort", where banks reallocated their investment from the private sector to government bonds. A main component of inflation costs is the misallocation of resources, this paper shows a channel through the reallocation of credits, where the credit market for the private sector trend to disappear. Theoretically, this paper studies the behavior of risk-neutral financiers in a world in which monitoring costs, and limited liability on the part of firms leads to credit rationing equilibria. In light of the well established relation between inflation and changes in relative prices, the theoretical model rationalizes the relationship between inflation and the allocation of capital in the banking system. Empirically, it looks at the dynamic behavior of the composition of bank's assets in Argentina between 1983 and 1998, which shows a robust relationship between relative price variability and bank's allocation in government denominated assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Druck & Pietro Garibaldi, 2000. "Inflation Risk and Portfolio Allocation in the Banking System," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 181, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:181
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    File URL: https://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/181.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Casella, Alessandra & Feinstein, Jonathan S, 1990. "Economic Exchange during Hyperinflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(1), pages 1-27, February.
    2. Mariano Tommasi, 1992. "Inflation and Relative Prices Evidence from Argentina," UCLA Economics Working Papers 661, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    4. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 87-114.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Allocation of Credit and Financial Collapse," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 455-470.
    6. Kiguel, Miguel A & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1995. "Seigniorage and Inflation: The Case of Argentina," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 672-682, August.
    7. Debelle, Guy & Lamont, Owen, 1997. "Relative Price Variability and Inflation: Evidence from U.S. Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(1), pages 132-152, February.
    8. Carlos A. Rodríguez, 1992. "Financial Reforms in Latin America: The Cases of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 84, Universidad del CEMA.
    9. Lach, Saul & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1992. "The Behavior of Prices and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of Disaggregated Price Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 349-389, April.
    10. Frederick C. Mills, 1927. "The Behavior of Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill27-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Vegh & Amartya Lahiri & Viktoria Hnatkovska, 2011. "The Exchange Rate Response Puzzle," 2011 Meeting Papers 425, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Jorge M.Streb & Pablo F.Druck, 2007. "Economic development as a matter of political geography," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1 Year 20), pages 5-20, June.
    3. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
    4. Mr. Pablo F Druck & Mr. Alexander Plekhanov & Mr. Mario Dehesa, 2007. "Relative Price Stability, Creditor Rights, and Financial Deepening," IMF Working Papers 2007/139, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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