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Explaining preference reversal with third-generation prospect theory

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Author Info
Ulrich Schmidt () (Lehrstuhl fuer Finanzmarkttheorie, Universitaet Hannover)
Chris Starmer () (School of Economics, University of Nottingham)
Robert Sugden () (School of Economic and Social Studies, University of East Anglia)

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Abstract

We present a new theory of decision under risk called third-generation prospect theory. A novel feature of our version of prospect theory is that, by allowing reference points to be uncertain, it is able to accommodate the phenomenon of preference reversal. While several previous theories of preference reversal have been proposed, thus far it has resisted explanation via any empirically plausible model of preferences. We investigate whether our explanation is empirically plausible. We find that the standard patterns of preference reversal are predicted for typical parameterisations of prospect theory already established in the empirical literature. Consequently we suggest that our model constitutes a best buy theory: it offers the predictive power of previous variants of prospect theory and adds to that an explanation of preference reversal. The latter comes ‘free of charge’ since it involves no extra parameters and no re-parameterisation.

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Paper provided by The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 2005-19.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cdx:dpaper:2005-19

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Related research
Keywords: Prospect theory; preference reversal; reference dependence;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  3. Karni, Edi & Safra, Zvi, 1987. ""Preference Reversal' and the Observability of Preferences by Experimental Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 675-85, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1989. " Probability and Juxtaposition Effects: An Experimental Investigation of the Common Ratio Effect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 159-78, June.
  5. Casey, Jeff T., 1991. "Reversal of the preference reversal phenomenon," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 224-251, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2004. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1061, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  7. Botond Koszegi & Matthew Rabin, 2004. "A Model of Reference-Dependent Preferences," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 0407001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Loomes, Graham & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1989. "Preference Reversal: Information-Processing Effect or Rational Non-transitive Choice?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 140-51, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Loomes, Graham & Sugden, Robert, 1983. "A Rationale for Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 428-32, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Humphrey, Steven J, 2001. "Non-Transitive Choice: Event-Splitting Effects or Framing Effects?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(269), pages 77-96, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Holt, Charles A, 1986. "Preference Reversals and the Independence Axiom," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 508-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Loomes, Graham & Moffatt, Peter G & Sugden, Robert, 2002. " A Microeconometric Test of Alternative Stochastic Theories of Risky Choice," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 103-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Robin P. Cubitt & Alistair Munro & Chris Starmer, 2004. "Testing explanations of preference reversal," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 709-726, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Sugden, Robert, 2003. "Reference-dependent subjective expected utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 172-191, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1998. "Testing Alternative Explanations of Cyclical Choices," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(259), pages 347-61, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Tversky, Amos & Slovic, Paul & Kahneman, Daniel, 1990. "The Causes of Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 204-17, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. " An Experimental Test of Several Generalized Utility Theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 61-104, April.
  21. Segal, Uzi, 1988. "Does the Preference Reversal Phenomenon Necessarily Contradict the Independence Axiom?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 233-36, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Loomes, Graham & Starmer, Chris & Sugden, Robert, 1991. "Observing Violations of Transitivity by Experimental Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 425-39, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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