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Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures

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Author Info
Li Li
Robert F. Engle

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Abstract

Utilizing open-close returns, close-close returns and volume data, we examine the reaction of the Treasury futures market to the periodically scheduled announcements of prominent U.S. macroeconomic data. Heterogeneous persistence from scheduled news vs. non-scheduled news is revealed. Strong asymmetric effects of scheduled announcements are presented: positive shocks depress volatility on consecutive days, while negative shocks increase volatility. Announcement-day shocks have small persistence, but great impacts on volatility in the short run. Investigation into volume data shows that announcement-day volume has lower persistence than non-announcement-day volume. No statistically significant risk premium manifests on the release dates. Compared with the implied volatility and realized volatility data, we find our model successful in forming both in-sample and out-of-sample multi-step forecasts. Distinctions are made and tested among microstructure theories that differ in predictions of the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news on volatility and volatility persistence. Asymmetric effects between positive and negative shocks from scheduled news call for further exploration of microstructure theory.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 98-27.

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Date of creation: Nov 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:98-27

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Nikolaus Hautsch & Dieter Hess, 2002. "The processing of non-anticipated information in financial markets: Analyzing the impact of surprises in the employment report," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michael J. Fleming & Jose A. Lopez, 1999. "Heat waves, meteor showers, and trading volume: an analysis of volatility spillovers in the U.S. Treasury market," Staff Reports 82, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Claudio Loderer & Marc-André Mittermayer, 2006. "America and the Swiss Stock Exchange: An Intraday Analysis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 142(I), pages 79-114, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Balli, Faruk, 2008. "Spillover Effects on Government Bond Yields in Euro Zone. Does Full Financial Integration Exist in European Government Bond Markets?," MPRA Paper 10162, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Marcelo Reyes, 2005. "Large Term Structure Movements in a Factor Model Framework," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 341, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kevin Sheppard & Robert F. Engle & Lorenzo Cappiello, 2003. "Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns," Working Paper Series 204, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Jon Wongswan, 2003. "Transmission of information across international equity markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 759, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. M. D. Mckenzie & R. D. Brooks, 2003. "The role of information in Hong Kong individual stock futures trading," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 123-131, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Antulio N. Bomfim, 2000. "Pre-announcement effects, news, and volatility: monetary policy and the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. David Veredas, 2006. "Macroeconomic surprises and short-term behaviour in bond futures," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 843-866, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eugene Durenard & David Veredas, 2002. "Macro Surprises And Short-Term Behaviour In Bond Futures," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-03, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  13. Goeij, P. de & Marquering, W.A., 2002. "Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?," Research Paper ERS-2002-103-F&A Revision, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni. [Downloadable!]
  14. Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "An Econometric Model of the Yield Curve with Macroeconomic Jump Effects," NBER Working Papers 8246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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