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Dangers of Data-Driven Inference: The Case of Calendar Effects in Stock Returns

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Author Info
Ryan Sullivan
Allan Timmermann
Halbert White

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Abstract

Economics is primarily a non-experimental science. Typically, we cannot generate new data sets on which to test hypotheses independently of the data that may have led to a particular theory. The common practice of using the same data set to formulate and test hypotheses introduces data-snooping biases that, if not accounted for, invalidate the assumptions underlying classical statistical inference. A striking example of a data-driven discovery is the presence of calendar effects in stock returns. There appears to be very substantial evidence of systematic abnormal stock returns related to the day of the week, the week of the month, the month of the year, the turn of the month, holidays, and so forth. However, this evidence has largely been considered without accounting for the intensive search preceding it. In this paper we use 100 years of daily data and a new bootstrap procedure that allows us to explicitly measure the distortions in statistical inference induced by data-snooping. We find that although nominal P-values of individual calendar rules are extremely significant, once evaluated in the context of the full universe from which such rules were drawn, calendar effects no longer remain significant.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 98-16.

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Date of creation: Jun 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:98-16

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. " A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-35, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lakonishok, Josef & Smidt, Seymour, 1984. "Volume and turn-of-the-year behavior," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 435-455, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. M. J. Fields, 1934. "Security Prices and Stock Exchange Holidays in Relation to Short Selling," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7, pages 328. [Downloadable!]
  5. Savin, N.E., 1984. "Multiple hypothesis testing," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 827-879 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ritter, Jay R & Chopra, Navin, 1989. " Portfolio Rebalancing and the Turn-of-the-Year Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 149-66, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kahn, James A. & Landsburg, Steven E. & Stockman, Alan C., 1996. "The Positive Economics of Methodology," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 64-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Smirlock, Michael & Starks, Laura, 1986. "Day-of-the-week and intraday effects in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 197-210, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1973. "Risk Aversion and the Martingale Property of Stock Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 436-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
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  16. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Wang, Ko & Li, Yuming & Erickson, John, 1997. " A New Look at the Monday Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2171-86, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Lakonishok, Josef & Maberly, Edwin, 1990. " The Weekend Effect: Trading Patterns of Individual and Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 231-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Jones, Charles P & Pearce, Douglas K & Wilson, Jack W, 1987. " Can Tax-Loss Selling Explain the January Effect? A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 453-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. " A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 835-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Andrew Patton, 2001. "Estimation of Copula Models for Time Series of Possibly Different Length," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-17, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Kostov & Seamus McErlean, 2004. "Estimating the probability of large negative stock market," Finance 0409011, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Edwin D. Maberly & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2000. "Closing the question on the continuation of turn-of-the-month effects: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures contract," Working Paper 2000-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
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