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A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu

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Author Info
Clive W.J. Granger
Bwo-Nung Huang
Chin Wei Yang

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Abstract

This paper applies recently developed unit root and cointegration models to determine the appropriate Granger causality relations between stock prices and exchange rates using recent Asian flu data. Coupled with impulse response functions, it is found that data from Japan and Thailand are in agreement with this approach, so that exchange rates leads stock prices with positive correlation. On the other hand, data of Taiwan suggests the result predicted by the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with negative correlation. Data from Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines indicate strong feedback relations while that of Singapore fails to reveal any recognizable pattern.

* National Chung-Cheng University, Taiwan

** Clarion University of Pennsylvania

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 98-09.

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Date of creation: Apr 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:98-09

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  1. Mete Feridun, 2006. "ISE and Exchange Market Pressure," Discussion Paper Series 2006_22, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Azman-Saini, W.N.W. & Habibullah, M.S. & Law, Siong Hook & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2006. "Stock prices, exchange rates and causality in Malaysia: a note," MPRA Paper 656, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. R. Smyth & M. Nandha, 2003. "Bivariate causality between exchange rates and stock prices in South Asia," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 699-704, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Simon J. Broome & Morley, B., 2003. "Stock Prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian Financial Crisis," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1311103, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Johann Burgstaller, 2002. "Are stock returns a leading indicator for real macroeconomic developments?," Economics working papers 2002-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. [Downloadable!]
  6. Abdul Qayyum & A. R. Kemal, 2006. "Volatility Spillover between the Stock Market and the Foreign Market in Pakistan," PIDE-Working Papers 2006:7, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Heng Chen & Bento J. Lobo & Wing-Keung Wong, 2006. "Links between the Indian, U.S. and Chinese Stock Markets," Departmental Working Papers wp0602, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzales-Hermosillo & Vance L. Martin, 2005. "Shocks And Systemic Influences: Contagion In Global Equity Markets In 1998," CAMA Working Papers 2005-15, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  9. Stavarek, Daniel, 2004. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions," MPRA Paper 7297, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Chien-Liang Chiu & Yen-Hsien Lee, 2007. "The Impact of the QFIIs Deregulation on Normal and Abnormal Information Transmission Between the Stock and Exchange rates in Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(22), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  11. Wong Keung-Wing & Habibullah Khan & Jun Du, 2006. "Money, Interest Rate and Stock Prices: New Evidence from Singapore and The United States," Departmental Working Papers wp0601, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Eduardo Roca, 2005. "Exchange rates and stock prices interaction during good and bad times: evidence from the ASEAN4 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 539-546, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Valadkhani, Abbas & Chancharat, Surachai & Harvie, Charles, 2006. "The Interplay Between the Thai and Several Other International Stock Markets," Economics Working Papers wp06-18, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119. [Downloadable!]
  15. Naeem Muhammad & Abdul Rasheed, 2002. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Are they Related? Evidence from South Asian Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 535-550. [Downloadable!]
  16. Wing-Keung Wong & Aman Agarwal & Jun Du, 2005. "Financial Integration for India Stock Market, a Fractional Cointegration Approach," Departmental Working Papers wp0501, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Huzaimi Hussain & Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates And Stock Prices In Malaysia And Thailand During The 1997 Currency Crisis Turmoil," International Finance 0405015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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