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Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market

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Author Info
Robert F. Engle
Joe Lange

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Abstract

The paper proposes a new measure of market liquidity, VNET, which directly measures the depth of the market. VNET is constructed from the excess volume of buys or sells during a market event defined by a price movement. As this measure varies over time, it can be forecast and explained. Using NYSE TORQ data, it is found that market depth varies positively but less than proportionally with past volume and negatively with the number of transactions. Both findings suggest that over the day high volumes are associated with an influx of informed traders and reduce market liquidity. The timing of events plays an intimate role in the analysis. High expected volatility as measured by the ACD model of Engle and Russell (1997) reduces expected liquidity. Finally, market depth is smaller when the one-sided trading volume is transacted in a shorter than expected time, providing an estimate of the value of patience.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 97-12r.

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Date of creation: Nov 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:97-12r

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Glosten, Lawrence R, 1987. " Components of the Bid-Ask Spread and the Statistical Properties of Transaction Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(5), pages 1293-1307, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1995. "Forecasting the Frequency of Changes in Quoted Foreign Exchange Prices with the Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-33, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  7. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. McInish, Thomas H & Wood, Robert A, 1992. " An Analysis of Intraday Patterns in Bid/Ask Spreads for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 753-64, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Harris, Lawrence, 1987. "Transaction Data Tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(02), pages 127-141, June. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  14. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 361-376, December. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
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  1. Michael J. Fleming, 2001. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Staff Reports 133, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Nikolaus Hautsch, 2002. "Modelling Intraday Trading Activity Using Box-Cox-ACD Models," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  3. Georges Dionne & Pierre Duchesne & Maria Pacurar, 2005. "Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange," Cahiers de recherche 0533, CIRPEE. [Downloadable!]
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