This paper analyzes the long-run relationship between gold and silver prices. The three main questions addressed are: the influence of a large bubble from 1979:9 to 1980:3 on the cointegration relationship, the extent to which by including error correction terms in a nonlinear way we can beat the random walk model out-of sample and, the existence of a strong simultaneous relationship between the rates of return of gold and silver. Different efficient single equation estimation techniques are required for each of the three questions and this is explained within a simple bivariate cointegrating system. With monthly data from 1971 to 1990, it is found that cointegration could have occurred during some periods and specially during the bubble and post-bubble period. However, dummy variables for the intercept of the long-run relationships are needed during the full sample. For the price of gold the nonlinear models perform better than the random walk in-sample and out-of sample. In-sample nonlinear models for the price of silver perform better than the random walk but this predictive capacity is lost out-of sample, mainly due to the structural change that occurs (reduction) in the variance of the out-of sample models. The in-sample and out-of sample predictive capacity of the nonlinear models is reduced when the variables are in logs. Clear and strong evidence is found for a simultaneous relationship between the rates of return of gold and silver. In the three type of relationships that we have analyzed between the prices of gold and silver, the dependence is less out-of sample, possibly meaning that the two markets are becoming separated.
* Department of Statistics and Econometrics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Related research
Keywords:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.