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Excess Volatility and Predictability of Stock Prices in Autoregressive Dividend Models with Learning

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Author Info
Allan Timmermann

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Abstract

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 96-14.

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Date of creation: May 1996
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:96-14

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  1. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "Productivity Shocks, Learning, and Open Economy Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 04/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  5. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1998. "Learning and excess volatility," Working Papers 1998-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Michael Brennan & Yihong Xia, 1997. "Stock Price Volatility, Learning, and the Equity Premium," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1131, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jonathan Lewellen & Jay Shanken, 2000. "Estimation Risk, Market Efficiency, and the Predictability of Returns," NBER Working Papers 7699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Gaunersdorfer, A. & Hommes, C.H.,, 2005. "A nonlinear structural model for volatility clustering," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. David Goldbaum, 2004. "On the Possibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Working Papers Rutgers University, Newark 2004-009, Department of Economics, Rutgers University, Newark. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Working Papers 2005-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Mordecai Kurz & Hehui Jin & Maurizio Motolese, 2005. "Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 109-147, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. George W. Evans & Avik Chakraborty, 2006. "Can Perpetual Learning Explain the Forward Premium Puzzle?," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-8, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 20 Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality Of Financial And Real Sector In Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5367, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Kevin J. Lansing, 2005. "Lock-in of extrapolative expectations in an asset pricing model," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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