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The Cyclicality of Job Loss and Hiring

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Author Info
Garey Ramey (UC San Diego)

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Abstract

We study the cyclical behavior of job loss and hiring using CPS worker flow data, adjusted for margin error and time aggregation error. The band pass filter is used to isolate cyclical components. We consider both total worker flows and transition hazard rates within a unified framework. Our results provide overwhelming support for a "separation-driven" view of employment adjustment whereby total job loss and hiring rise sharply during economic downturns, initiated by increases in job loss hazard rate. Worker flows and transition hazard rates are highly volatile at business cycle frequencies. These patterns are especially strong among prime-age workers. For young workers, job loss and hiring adjust procyclically due to movements into and out of the labor force.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2008-08.

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Date of creation: 25 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2008-08

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Keywords: Job Loss Hiring CPS worker flows

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Raven E. Saks & Abigail Wozniak, 2007. "Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 2766, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael U. Krause & David J. Lopez-Salido & Thomas Lubik, 2007. "Do Search Frictions Matter for Inflation Dynamics?," Kiel Working Papers 1353, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabio Canova & David López-Salido & Claudio Michelacci, 2007. "The labor market effects of technology shocks," Banco de España Working Papers 0719, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Shigeru Fujita & Christopher J. Nekarda & Garey Ramey, 2007. "The cyclicality of worker flows: new evidence from the SIPP," Working Papers 07-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels, 2008. "Marginal Jobs, Heterogeneous Firms, & Unemployment Flows," NBER Working Papers 13777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2007. "Reassessing the Shimer facts," Working Papers 07-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michael U. Krause & Thomas A. Lubik & David López-Salido, 2008. "Inflation dynamics with search frictions : a structural econometric analysis," Working Paper 08-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael Krause & David Lopez-Salido & Thomas Lubik, 2008. "Inflation Dynamics With Search Frctions: A Structural Econometric Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2008-06, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "U.S. Labour Market Dynamics Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 6481, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Shigeru Fujita, 2007. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the agnostic identification approach," Working Papers 07-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mark Bils & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2007. "Comparative Advantage in Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 13231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Eran Yashiv, 2007. "U.S. Labor Market Dynamics Revisited," CEP Discussion Papers dp0831, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2007. "Job-finding and separation rates in the OECD," Staff Reports 298, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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