Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Multivariate Forecast Evaluation And Rationality Testing

Author Info

Ivana Komunjer (University of California - San Diego)
MICHAEL OWYANG (Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new family of multivariate loss functions that can be used to test the rationality of vector forecasts without assuming independence across individual variables. When only one variable is of interest, the loss function reduces to the flexible asymmetric family recently proposed by Elliott, Komunjer, and Timmermann (2005). Following their methodology, we derive a GMM test for multivaariate forecast rationality that allows the forecast errors to be dependent, and takes into account forecast estimation ucertainty. We use our test to study the rationality of macroeconomic vector forecasts in the growth rate in nominal output, the CPI inflation rate, and a short-term interest rate.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2007-08.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2007-08

Note: oai:cdlib1:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508
Phone: (858) 534-3383
Fax: (858) 534-7040
Web page: http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Other versions of this item:

Paper
- Ivana Komunjer & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Multivariate forecast evaluation and rationality testing," Working Papers 2007-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-03-01 (All new papers)
NEP-ECM-2008-03-01 (Econometrics)
NEP-ETS-2008-03-01 (Econometric Time Series)
NEP-FOR-2008-03-01 (Forecasting)
NEP-ORE-2008-03-01 (Operations Research)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "Optimal prediction under asymmetric loss," Working Papers 97-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Christoffersen & Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Home Pages 167, 1996., University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, . "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," CARESS Working Papres 97-20, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 1994. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," NBER Technical Working Papers 0167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 1997. "Optimal Prediction Under Asymmetric Loss," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 808-817, December. [Downloadable!]
Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1999. "Forecasting Inflation," NBER Working Papers 7023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Batchelor, Roy & Peel, David A., 1998. "Rationality testing under asymmetric loss," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 49-54, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-16. [Downloadable!]
Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
Other versions:
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 248, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Ulrich K. Müller & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2006. "Are forecasters reluctant to revise their predictions? Some German evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 401-413. [Downloadable!]
Andrews, Donald W K, 1994. "Asymptotics for Semiparametric Econometric Models via Stochastic Equicontinuity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 43-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barsky, Robert B., 1987. "The Fisher hypothesis and the forecastability and persistence of inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Robert B. Barsky, 1986. "The Fisher Hypothesis and the Forecastability and Persistence of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 1927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can use IDEAS to provide links to papers and articles in your course syllabus.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-17.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.