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Estimation, Inference, and Specification Testing for Possibly Misspecified Quantile Regression

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Author Info
Halbert White (University of California, San Diego)
Tae-Hwan Kim (Yonsei University)

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Abstract

To date the literature on quantile regression and least absolute deviation regression has assumed either explicitly or implicitly that the conditional quantile regression model is correctly specified. When the model is misspecified, confidence intervals and hypothesis tests based on the conventional covariance matrix are invalid. Although misspecification is a generic phenomenon and correct specification is rare in reality, there has to date been no theory proposed for inference when a conditional quantile model may be misspecified. In this paper, we allow for possible misspecification of a linear conditional quantile regression model. We obtain consistency of the quantile estimator for certain "pseudo-true" parameter values and asymptotic normality of the quantile estimator when the model is misspecified. In this case, the asymptotic covariance matrix has a novel form, not seen in earlier work, and we provide a consistent estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix. We also propose a quick and simple test for conditional quantile misspecification based on the quantile residuals.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2002-09.

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Date of creation: 01 Apr 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2002-09

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Related research
Keywords: conditional quantile; misspecification; asymptotic normality; asymptotic covariance matrix;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:2:p:186-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:5:p:793-813 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. White, Halbert, 1980. "Nonlinear Regression on Cross-Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 721-46, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:4:p:450-63 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:1:p:105-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1990. "A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 949, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Buchinsky, Moshe, 1995. "Estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix for quantile regression models a Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 303-338, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Koenker, Roger & Zhao, Quanshui, 1996. "Conditional Quantile Estimation and Inference for Arch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(05), pages 793-813, December. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ivana Komunjer, 2002. "The Alpha-Quantile Distribution Function and its Applications to Financial Modeling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 288, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Joel L. Horowitz, 1998. "Bootstrap Methods for Median Regression Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1327-1352, November.
    Other versions:
  13. Bai, Jushan, 1995. "Least Absolute Deviation Estimation of a Shift," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 403-436, June. [Downloadable!]
  14. Zheng, John Xu, 1998. "A Consistent Nonparametric Test Of Parametric Regression Models Under Conditional Quantile Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 123-138, February. [Downloadable!]
  15. Hahn, Jinyong, 1995. "Bootstrapping Quantile Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 105-121, February. [Downloadable!]
  16. Herce, Miguel A., 1996. "Asymptotic Theory of LAD Estimation in a Unit Root Process with Finite Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 129-153, March. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Powell, James L, 1983. "The Asymptotic Normality of Two-Stage Least Absolute Deviations Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1569-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Shinichi Sakata & Halbert White, 1998. "High Breakdown Point Conditional Dispersion Estimation with Application to S&P 500 Daily Returns Volatility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 529-568, May.
  22. Pollard, David, 1991. "Asymptotics for Least Absolute Deviation Regression Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 186-199, June. [Downloadable!]
  23. Moshe Buchinsky & Jinyong Hahn, 1998. "An Alternative Estimator for the Censored Quantile Regression Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 653-672, May.
  24. Powell, James L., 1984. "Least absolute deviations estimation for the censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 303-325, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Weiss, Andrew A., 1990. "Least absolute error estimation in the presence of serial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 127-158. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Powell, James L., 1986. "Censored regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 143-155, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Komunjer, Ivana, 2002. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Conditional Quantiles," Working Papers 1139, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Cristian Huse, 2004. "Comparing Nonparametric Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 165, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Joshua Angrist & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val, 2004. "Quantile Regression under Misspecification, with an Application to the U.S. Wage Structure," NBER Working Papers 10428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Yang Yang & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2004. "Bagging Binary Predictors for Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 512, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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