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Almost-Objective Uncertainty

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Author Info
Mark J. Machina
Abstract

Every subjective state space with sufficient (e.g., Euclidean) structure contains almost-objective events that approximate, and in the limit attain, the standard properties of objectively uncertain events for all individuals with event-smooth betting preferences - whether they are expected utility/non-expected utility, state-independent/state-dependent, or probabilistically sophisticated/non-probabilistically sophisticated. These properties include well-defined and unanimously agreed-upon revealed likelihoods that are independent of the realization of other subjective events, probabilistic sophistication over almost-objective acts, and linearity of state-independent or state-dependent expected utility preferences over almost-objective acts and almost-objective mixtures of subjective acts. Many real-world randomization devices are based on events of this form.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2001-12.

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Date of creation: Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2001-12

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chew, Soo Hong & Epstein, Larry G. & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1988. "A correspondence theorem between expected utility and smooth utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 186-193, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Epstein, Larry G. & Marinacci, Massimo, 2001. "The Core of Large Differentiable TU Games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 235-273, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter, 1997. "A Single-Stage Approach to Anscombe and Aumann's Expected Utility," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 64(3), pages 399-409, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. John Quiggin, 2007. "Ambiguity and the Value of Information: An Almost-objective Events Analysis," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 409-414, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Epstein, Larry G, 1999. "A Definition of Uncertainty Aversion," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 66(3), pages 579-608, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hong, Chew Soo & Nishimura, Naoko, 1992. "Differentiability, comparative statics, and non-expected utility preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 294-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Karni, Edi, 1989. "Generalized Expected Utility Analysis of Multivariate Risk Aversion," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 297-305, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Machina, Mark J, 1982. ""Expected Utility" Analysis without the Independence Axiom," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 277-323, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hong, Chew Soo & Karni, Edi & Safra, Zvi, 1987. "Risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 370-381, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Mark Machina, 2002. "Robustifying the Classical Model of Risk Preferences and Beliefs," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-06, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  14. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2001. "A Subjective Spin on Roulette Wheels," Working Papers 1127, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  2. ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX, Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 04-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 2003-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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