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Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy

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Author Info
Ana Maria Herrera (Michigan State University)
James Hamilton (UCSD)

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Abstract

A recent paper by Bernanke, Gertler and Watson (1997) suggests that monetary policy could be used to eliminate any recessionary consequences of an oil price shock. This paper challenges that conclusion on two grounds. First, we question whether the Federal Reserve actually has the power to implement such a policy; for example, we consider it unlikely that additional money creation would have succeeded in reducing the Fed funds rate by 900 basis points relative to the values seen in 1974. Second, we point out that the size of the effect that Bernanke, Gertler and Watson attribute to oil shocks is substantially smaller than that reported by other researchers, primarily due to their choice of a shorter lag length than used by other researchers. We offer evidence in favor of the longer lag length employed by previous research, and show that, under this specification, even the aggressive Federal Reserve policies proposed would not have succeeded in averting a downturn.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2001-10.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2001-10

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Related research
Keywords: regime switch; oil shocks;

Cited by:
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  1. Julian di Giovanni & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Impact of Foreign Interest Rates on the Economy: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," IMF Working Papers 06/37, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Montoro Carlos, 2007. "Oil Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2007-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  3. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill & Tom Stark, 2002. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: evidence from the Livingston Survey," Working Papers 02-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:3:1435-1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jose De Gregorio. & Oscar Landerretche. & Christopher Neilson., 2007. "Another Pass-Through Bites the Dust? Oil Prices and Inflation," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 417, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  6. Winkler, Roland & Wohltmann, Hans-Werner, 2006. "Anticipated Raw Materials Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Response - A New Keynesian Approach," Economics Working Papers 2006,19, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2001. "A quantitative analysis of oil-price shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns," Working Papers 01-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks: Testing for Non-linearity," CSEF Working Papers 115, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  10. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Inflation Premium and Oil Price Volatility," CEP Discussion Papers dp0782, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Jane Sneddon Little, 2000. "Recent developments in U.S. energy markets: a background note," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  14. Noureddine Krichene, 2006. "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock," IMF Working Papers 06/62, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2002. "Oil Price Shock: A Nonlinear Approach," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-32, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  16. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 2/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Al-Amin, Abul Quasem & Siwar, Chamhuri & Jaafar, Abdul hamid, 2008. "Impacts of External Price Shocks on Malaysian Macro Economy-An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis," MPRA Paper 9308, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN. [Downloadable!]
  19. Jochen Moebert, 2007. "Crude Oil Price Determinants," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
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