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Impacts of Trades in an Error-Correction Model of Quote Prices

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Author Info
Robert Engle (New York University)
Andrew Patton (University of Oxford)

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze and interpret the quote price dynamics of 100 NYSE stocks with varying average trade frequencies. We specify an error-correction model for the log difference of the bid and the ask price, with the spread acting as the error-correction term, and include as regressors the characteristics of the trades occurring between quote observations, if any. We find that short duration and medium volume trades have the largest impacts on quote prices for all one hundred stocks, and that buyer initiated trades primarily move the ask price while seller initiated trades primarily move the bid price. Trades have a greater impact on quotes in both the short and the long run for the infrequently traded stocks than for the more actively traded stocks. Finally, we find strong evidence that the spread is mean reverting.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2000-26.

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Date of creation: 22 Aug 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2000-26

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Related research
Keywords: market microstructure; error-correction; vector autoregression; price dynamics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
    Other versions:
  2. Robert Engle, 1999. "Modeling the Impacts of Market Activity on Bid-Ask Spreads in the Option Market," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Huang, Roger D & Stoll, Hans R, 1994. "Market Microstructure and Stock Return Predictions," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 179-213. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Seppi, Duane J, 1990. " Equilibrium Block Trading and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 73-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  9. Biais, Bruno & Hillion, Pierre & Spatt, Chester, 1995. " An Empirical Analysis of the Limit Order Book and the Order Flow in the Paris Bourse," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1655-89, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Benston, George J. & Hagerman, Robert L., 1974. "Determinants of bid-asked spreads in the over-the-counter market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 353-364, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Copeland, Thomas E & Galai, Dan, 1983. " Information Effects on the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1457-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Keim, Donald B & Madhaven, Ananth, 1996. "The Upstairs Market for Large-Block Transactions: Analysis and Measurement of Price Effects," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Joel Hasbrouck, 1999. "The Dynamics of Discrete Bid and Ask Quotes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2109-2142, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Jang, Hasung & Venkatesh, P C, 1991. " Consistency between Predicted and Actual Bid-Ask Quote-Revisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 433-46, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Spierdijk, L. & Nijman, T.E. & Soest, A.H.O., 2002. "The price impact of trades in illiquid stocks in periods of high and low market activity," Discussion Paper 29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Georg H. Strasser, 2008. "On the Correlation Structure of Microstructure Noise in Theory and Practice," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 692, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Thierry Foucault & Ohad Kadan & Eugene Kandel, 2003. "Limit Order Book as a Market for Liquidity," Discussion Paper Series dp321, Center for Rationality and Interactive Decision Theory, Hebrew University, Jerusalem. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andros Gregoriou, 2007. "The Asymmetry of the Price Impact of Block Trades and the Bid-Ask Spread. Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 76, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sucarrat, Genaro, 2009. "Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(8), pages 1-33. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chor-yiu SIN, 2004. "Estimation and Testing for Partially Nonstationary Vector Autoregressive Models with GARCH: WLS versus QMLE," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 476, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sugato Chakravarty & Frederick H. deB. Harris & Robert A. Wood, 2002. "Do Bid-Ask Spreads Or Bid and Ask Depths Convey New Information First?," Econometrics 0201003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Andersson, Jonas & Moberg, Jan-Magnus, 2007. "Structural breaks in point processes: With an application to reporting delays for trades on the New York stock exchange," Discussion Papers 2007/28, Department of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
  10. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Intra-Day Seasonality in Activities of the Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence From the Electronic Broking System," NBER Working Papers 12413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Björn Hagströmer & Richard G. Anderson & Jane M. Binner & Birger Nilsson, 2009. "Dynamics in systematic liquidity," Working Papers 2009-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bruce Mizrach, 2006. "Does SIZE Matter? Liquidity Provision by the Nasdaq Anonymous Trading Facility," Departmental Working Papers 200602, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. PASCUAL, Roberto & VEREDAS, David, 2006. "Does the open limit order book matter in explaining long run volatility ?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006110, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  14. Alvaro Escribano & Roberto Pascual, 2006. "Asymmetries in bid and ask responses to innovations in the trading process," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 913-946, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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