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Analytical Evaluation of the Power of Tests for the Absence of Cointegration

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Elena Pesavento

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Abstract

This paper proposes a theoretical explanation to the common empirical results in which different tests for cointegration give different answers. Using local to unity parametrization I compute the analytical power of some tests for the null of no cointegration: The ADF test on the residuals of the cointegration regression, Johansen's maximum eigenvalue test, the t-test on the Error Correction term and Boswijk (1994) Wald test. The tests are shown to be functions of Brownian Motions and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and to depend on a single nuisance parameter, which is, in turn determined by the correlation at frequency zero of the independent variables with the errors of the cointegration regression. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests can have significantly different performances for different values of the nuisance parameter. An application to the money demand equation is presented.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 2000-24.

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Date of creation: Sep 2000
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:2000-24

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  1. Gengenbach, Christian & Urbain, Jean-Pierre & Westerlund, Joakim, 2008. "Panel Error Correction Testing with Global Stochastic Trends," Research Memoranda 051, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
  2. Barry Falk & Chun-Hsuan Wang, 2003. "Testing long-run PPP with infinite-variance returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 471-484. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Elena Pesavento, 2005. "Residuals Bases Tests for the Null of No Cointegration: an Analytical Comparison," Emory Economics 0503, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Don Bredin & Trevor Fitzpatrick & Gerard O Reilly, 2002. "Retail Interest Rate Pass-Through - The Irish Experience," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 223-246. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Working Papers 2008-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hisham Foad, 2005. "Europe Without Borders? The Effect of the EMU on Relative Prices," Emory Economics 0515, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Habibullah, M.S. & Dayang-Afizzah, A.M., 2008. "Bordering neighbours: Testing for border effect on Malaysia's northern states and Southern Thailand," MPRA Paper 12103, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2003. "Optimal Power For Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors with Known Parameters for Nonstationarity," Emory Economics 0303, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Graham Elliott & Michael Jansson & Elena Pesavento, 2004. "Optimal Power for Testing Potential Cointegrating Vectors with Known," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2004-08, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  10. Bandholz, Harm & Clostermann, Joerg & Seitz, Franz, 2007. "Explaining the US Bond Yield Conundrum," MPRA Paper 2386, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Österholm, Pär, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Misspecified Systems –A Monte Carlo Study of Size Distortions," Working Paper Series 2003:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009. "Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CREATES Research Papers 2009-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
  13. Palm, Franz C. & Smeekes, Stephan & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "A Sieve Bootstrap Test for Cointegration in a Conditional Error Correction Model," Research Memoranda 054, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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