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Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Robert Engle (New York University)
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Utilizing open-close returns, close-close returns and volume data, we examine the reaction of the Treasury futures market to the periodically scheduled announcements of prominent U.S. macroeconomic data. Heterogeneous persistence from scheduled news vs. non-scheduled news is revealed. Strong asymmetric effects of scheduled announcements are presented: positive shocks depress volatility on consecutive days, while negative shocks increase volatility. Announcement-day shocks have small persistence, but great impacts on volatility in the short run. Investigation into volume data shows that announcement-day volume has lower persistence than non-announcement-day volume. No statistically significant risk premium manifests on the release dates. Compared with the implied volatility and realized volatility data, we find our model successful in forming both in-sample and out-of-sample multi-step forecasts. Distinctions are made and tested among microstructure theories that differ in predictions of the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news on volatility and volatility persistence. Asymmetric effects between positive and negative shocks from scheduled news call for further exploration of microstructure theory.
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number
1998-27.
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Date of creation: 01 Nov 1998Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:1998-27Note: oai:cdlib1:Contact details of provider: Postal: 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0508 Phone: (858) 534-3383 Fax: (858) 534-7040 Web page: http://repositories.cdlib.org/ucsdecon/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
Keywords: volatility ; implied volatility ; information ; announcement ; GARCH ; risk ; Other versions of this item:
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