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Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series

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Author Info
Clive Granger (University of California, San Diego)
Namwon Hyung (University of Seoul)
Yongil Jeon (Sungkyunkwan University)

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Abstract

A spurious regression occurs when a pair of independent series, but with strong temporal properties, are found apparently to be related according to standard inference in an OLS regression. Although this is well known to occur with pairs of independent unit root processes, this paper finds evidence that similar results are found with positively autocorrelated autoregressive series on long moving averages. This occurs regardless of the sample size and for various distributions of the error terms.

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File URL: http://repositories.cdlib.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1236&context=ucsdecon
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number 1998-25.

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Date of creation: 01 Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:1998-25

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Related research
Keywords: autoregressions; spurious regressions; inference;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Marmol, Francesc, 1996. "Nonsense Regressions between Integrated Processes of Different Orders," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 525-36, August.
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Travaglini, Guido, 2008. "Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes," MPRA Paper 7108, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends," School of Economics Working Papers EM200503, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
  3. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," School of Economics Working Papers EM200701, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," School of Economics Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Richard Beil & George Ford & John Jackson, 2005. "On the relationship between telecommunications investment and economic growth in the United States," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 3-9, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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